It’ll be the first annual Dan Mullen Bowl this week as the no. 23 Mississippi State Bulldogs host the Florida Gators. Game time is set for 6:00 EST on Saturday, September 29 at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi. Fans can watch the game on ESPN.
According to the Week 5 college football odds, the Bulldogs are a 7.5-point favorite at home. That line has increased slightly after Mississippi State opened as 7-point favorites.
Mullen’s return to Starkville as head coach of the Gators after nine seasons with Mississippi State is obviously the headliner for this game. Mullen brings with him a Florida team that’s 3-1 and fresh off a 47-21 win over Tennessee last week. The Gators also had a convincing 48-10 win over Colorado State the previous week, so they appear to have found their stride offensively the past couple of weeks.
However, the Gators lost their SEC opener to Kentucky a few weeks ago, putting them behind the pace in the SEC East. With LSU scheduled for next week and Florida’s showdown with Georgia on the horizon, the Gators can’t afford to lose this game if they want to keep their hopes of winning the SEC East alive.
Oddly enough, Mississippi State also lost their first conference game of the season to Kentucky. The Bulldogs looked to be cruising under new head coach Joe Moorhead with lopsided victories over Kansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette. However, the MSU offense was stopped in its tracks last week, gaining just 201 total yards in a 28-7 loss to Kentucky.
The Bulldogs were a little lucky to stay in the top-25 after that loss. They are now in a rather precarious position inside the SEC West after dropping one of their crossover games with the East division. With Auburn, LSU, and Texas A&M on State’s schedule in October, things could spiral out of control for the Bulldogs if they’re unable to bounce back against Mullen and the Gators at home this week.
Due to the quirks in SEC scheduling, these two teams haven’t played each other since 2010. Back then, Mullen led Mississippi State to a 10-7 upset win over Urban Meyer and Florida after previously serving as Meyer’s offensive coordinator for the Gators. Mullen is now leading the Gators back to his old stomping grounds in hopes of scoring another upset win.
A couple of weeks ago, I probably would have swallowed the points and leaned toward Mississippi State, but not anymore. The Bulldogs looked exposed last week whereas the Gators have started to put it together the past couple of weeks. With the line greater than a touchdown, I don’t have faith in Mississippi State to cover. Even if Florida doesn’t get the win, I’ll lean toward them to at least beat the spread.
Mississippi State’s run-heavy offense looked quite problematic last week. The Bulldogs gained just 56 yards running the ball, forcing Nick Fitzgerald to throw the ball 32 teams. He completed just 16 of those for a meager 145 yards. His numbers weren’t that much better against Kansas State earlier this year. That’s a huge red flag to Florida’s defense that if they can stop the run and force Fitzgerald to beat them with his arm, they’ll be in a good position to win the game.
It’s also important to remember that Mullen knows the Mississippi State personnel as well as anyone. After all, he’s the one who recruited all of them. He’ll know exactly what to do to take away State’s running game make Fitzgerald uncomfortable.
One can assume the Gators have the personnel to execute that kind of game plan after they held Tennessee to 2.9 yards per carry last week. The Florida defense also forced six takeaways in that game, which is something Fitzgerald should be wary of this week. I don’t expect the MSU offense to be quite that inept, but the Florida defense has to feel confident after that kind of performance, especially against a team like Mississippi State that doesn’t have much of a passing game.
Admittedly, things may not be so easy on the other side of the ball. The Mississippi State defense is ranked 10th in the country in points allowed per game. The Bulldogs weren’t that bad on that side of the ball last week. They were also outstanding the first few weeks of the season, so Mullen and the Florida offense have some work to do. Quarterback Feleipe Franks is still coming along, so the Gators will have to lean on their running game. That may be easier said than done. Kentucky may have scored four touchdowns on the ground, but they didn’t exactly run wild for four quarters against the MSU defense.
In the end, I think all the pressure in this game is on Mississippi State. They’re the team coming off the loss and the team going against their old head coach. Given the problems of the MSU passing attack last week and Mullen’s knowledge of nearly every player on the Mississippi State roster, the Bulldogs are in a tough spot despite being the more talented team. With all of that working against State, I don’t see them covering more than a touchdown. I’ll take my chances with Florida beating the spread and perhaps winning the game straight up.