Both teams will be looking for their first win of the season this weekend when the Michigan Wolverines host the Western Michigan Broncos. Game time between the two Michigan schools is noon EST on Saturday, September 1 at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor. Fans can catch all the action on FS1.
Looking at the Week 2 odds in college football, the Wolverines are 26.5-point favorites against the Broncos.
The Wolverines no doubt have a sour taste in their mouth after last week’s loss to Notre Dame. The Michigan defense struggled early, putting the Wolverines in a 14-0 hole that they couldn’t climb out of against the Irish.
The loss, albeit to a quality team, is a huge hit to Michigan’s College Football Playoff hopes. They will have plenty of opportunities to score quality wins inside the Big Ten. Of course, playing in the Big Ten makes it hard to believe the Wolverines will be able to run the table and limit themselves to just one loss this season.
Western Michigan is also coming off a loss in their season opener. The Broncos lost to Syracuse 55-42. After trailing 34-7 at halftime, Western Michigan came storming back to cut the deficit to six points on two different occasions. However, the Broncos couldn’t get enough stops to make it all the way back despite out-gaining the Orange in total yards.
Naturally, the Broncos have never beat Michigan in six all-time meetings. The last of those meetings came in 2011 when the Wolverines won 34-10. Of course, smaller Michigan schools will always be motivated to take on one of the state’s big boys, so Jim Harbaugh’s team better be ready for a fight.
I expect the Wolverines to bounce back and win this game. But I’m not comfortable with them covering the spread. Yes, there will be a difference in talent level, but Western Michigan is a quality MAC team. Also, the Wolverines didn’t win any game by more than 25 points last season, and even with Shea Patterson at quarterback, I’m not sure they’re the kind of team to blowout weaker opponents. I’ll lean toward the Broncos to keep the game close and beat the spread.
Obviously, Western Michigan’s Jekyll & Hyde performance in their season opener was a little concerning. They looked helpless on both sides of the ball for much of the first half. But they also looked dynamic offensively in the second half. Part of the success in the second half has to be chalked up to a complacent defense that led 34-7 at halftime. But the Broncos have an experienced quarterback in Joe Wassink, a running game that’s capable of creating big plays, and two quality receivers in D’Wayne Eskridge and Jayden Reed.
Obviously, Michigan’s strength is on the defensive side of the ball. Despite a sluggish start, they ended up holding Notre Dame to just 2.8 yards per carry on the ground and just over 300 total yards. However, the Broncos may have a more competent passing game than the one the Wolverines saw against Notre Dame. WMU also isn’t reliant on their quarterback to run the ball, giving the Broncos a different kind of offensive attack than Michigan faced last week. Western Michigan was also undeterred by a slow start and eventually found a nice groove, so I think they have a chance to do some damage against the Wolverines.
Of course, I’m less confident in the Western Michigan defense. The only time they had success against Syracuse is when the Orange put its backup quarterback in the game. That being said, the Broncos struggled to stop quarterback Eric Dungey as a runner but held him to just seven completions on 17 attempts as a passer. Patterson doesn’t present much difficult as a runner, so perhaps the WMU defense is better set up to defend a less mobile quarterback.
Patterson has great arm talent, but things just didn’t click for the Michigan offense last week. Part of the credit goes to Notre Dame’s defense for stopping the Wolverines on the ground. But the fact that the Wolverines didn’t score an offensive touchdown until late in the 4th quarter is a concern. Those struggles could indicate a longer transition period than expected for Patterson as the team’s quarterback.
Finally, it’s pertinent to look at Western Michigan’s recent track record against power conference teams. A year ago, the Broncos lost 49-31 to USC and 28-14 to Michigan State the first two weeks of the season. They were legitimately competitive in both of those games against powerhouse programs. After they made a strong comeback attempt against Syracuse last week, I expect Western Michigan to make things interesting this week.
The bottom line is that we’ve seen very little from Michigan’s offense during the Harbaugh era to think that the Wolverines can cover a nearly four-touchdown spread. I think Western Michigan will make it difficult for the Wolverines to pull away and win comfortably. I’ll take my chances with Western Michigan being able to beat the spread.