The no. 11 Michigan State Spartans get their 2018 season started with a home game against the Utah State Aggies. Game time is set for 7:00 EST on Friday, August 31 at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan. Fans can watch the game on the Big Ten Network. At home, the Spartans are favored by 22.5 points. See additional spreads and more previews for week 1 games here.
Michigan State enters the 2018 season with their sights set on a Big Ten championship and perhaps a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Spartans are just two years removed from a disastrous 3-9 season in 2016. However, Mark Dantonio’s team bounced back last year, going 10-3, making it clear that the previous season was little more than an aberration.
Oddly enough, Utah State also went 3-9 in 2016 but managed to bounce back last year. Of course, Matt Wells and the Aggies did bounce back quite as much as MSU. Utah State was a modest 6-7 in 2017, getting an invitation to the Arizona Bowl, only to lose to New Mexico State. However, the Aggies are looking to use last year as a stepping stone toward something bigger in 2018.
The Spartans and Aggies return 19 and 16 starters, respectively. That means both teams will be filled with experienced players who will be confident that their team can get off to a fast start in 2018.
It’s awfully tempting to take Utah State and the points in this game. The Aggies appear to have all the ingredients to make a lot of noise in the Mountain West this season. The Utah State depth chart is littered with upperclassmen, and those are usually the kinds of teams that can stay close with top-25 teams like Michigan State. However, the talent on the Michigan State roster seems like it’s a couple of levels above the Aggies, so I’ll swallow the points and lean toward the Spartans.
That being said, this Utah State team should make MSU fans a little nervous. Sophomore quarterback Jordan Love started the second half of last year and did enough to lock down the starting job for the start of 2018. He has some experience under his belt, and with the addition of USC grad transfer Jalen Greene, he should have a solid group of receivers at his disposal. Utah State also returns five starters along the offensive line, so they should also be able to run the ball with some consistency to take some of the pressure off Love.
However, the Michigan State defense could be on a whole other level. The Spartans had a top-10 defense a year ago, and with all the talent they have returning, they could be even better this year. The MSU secondary is as deep and talented as they get, which won’t give Love many open windows to throw the ball. Michigan State also has a stout front-7 despite the lack of an elite pass rusher. Even an experienced Utah State offensive line could struggle to win the battle at the line of scrimmage and give the Aggies a consistent ground threat. If the Aggies can’t establish something on the ground, Love may not be ready to do it all himself against such a talented defense.
On the other side of the ball, the Utah State defense could feel pressure to slow down the Spartans so the Aggies don’t get blown out early. The Utah State front-7 actually has a chance to stand tall against the Michigan State running game. Senior running back L.J. Scott is steady and reliable, but he’s not exactly a star. His production from week to week can be inconsistent, even against lower-level opponents. Without an obvious backup at the running back spot, the Aggies have a chance to keep Scott contained and force quarterback Brian Lewerke to beat them with his arm.
Unfortunately for Utah State, their biggest weakness on defense could be at cornerback. That’s the one spot where the Aggies don’t return a lot of experience. Meanwhile, the Spartans have two experienced receivers who caught at least 50 passes last year in Felton Davis and Darrell Stewart. Davis and sophomore Cody White bring great size and could be difficult to handle for Utah State’s young corners. Meanwhile, Stewart can be a menace after the catch, posing a different kind of problem for the defense. Lewerke has had some ups and downs during his career, but with a strong offensive line in front of him and a few reliable receivers at his disposal, his job should be relatively easy against Utah State.
On paper, the Aggies may look like a team that can give Michigan State some trouble. But keeping up with the Spartans for four quarters is easier said than done. Last year, Utah State played three games against quality teams in Wisconsin, Wake Forest, and Boise State and were blown out each time. They lost those three games by an average of 37 points. Even with the core of the team being older and more experienced, those results indicate Utah State doesn’t have the talent to hang with Michigan State. Eventually, the Spartans will pull away and cover the spread.