The no. 18 Michigan State Spartans will get their 2019 campaign started at home against the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes. Game time is set for 7:00 EST on Friday, August 30, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan. Fans can catch the game on FS1.
According to the Week 1 college football odds, Michigan State is favored by 22 points over Tulsa. The game also has an over/under of 47 points.
Michigan State is hoping that the 2019 season will go better than their 2018 campaign. The Spartans managed just a 7-6 record last season, falling flat following an impressive 10-3 season back in 2017. On the one hand, the Spartans have been remarkably consistent, reaching a bowl game in 11 of Mark Dantonio’s 12 seasons. On the other hand, it’s been three seasons since they won a Big Ten title after winning three in a period of six years from 2010 to 2015.
Obviously, life isn’t easy in the Big Ten East division. But the Spartans also had problems during the non-conference part of their schedule last year. They barely beat Utah State in their season opener and then suffered a surprising loss to Arizona State. If they want to make some noise this season, the Spartans need to avoid similar shortcomings against their non-conference foes, starting with their opener against Tulsa.
Speaking of the Golden Hurricanes, they appear to be entering a make-or-break season under head coach Philip Montgomery. Tulsa went to back-to-back bowl games in Montgomery’s first two seasons at the helm in 2015 and 2016, including a 10-3 season in 2016. However, they are 5-19 over the past two seasons.
Tulsa’s only wins a year ago came against Central Arkansas, UConn, and SMU. In their defense, five of their nine losses were by single digits, including a 7-point loss to Texas early in the season and a 1-point defeat to a South Florida team that was ranked at the time. One could argue that the Golden Hurricanes were a little better than what their record would indicate. But Montgomery needs to find ways to win games this season, and starting the season against Michigan State will no doubt be challenging.
Normally, I don’t like swallowing this many points for a team with an inept offense, which was undoubtedly the case with Michigan State last year. I will admit to taking a slight risk with this pick. But I like how the Spartans look this year. I’ll put a little trust in them to win going away in their opener. Tulsa has some strengths, but they also have a lot of flaws, so I’ll look for MSU to cover.
Of course, with Michigan State is all starts with defense. The Spartans were exceptional defending the run last season, and I don’t expect that to change. They are strong at the tackle spots and defensive end Kenny Willekes was Defensive Lineman of the Year in the Big Ten in 2018. I expect the Spartans to be stout up front, and with a deep secondary, it’ll be tough for teams to score on them this year.
The ability to stop the run will help take away Tulsa’s biggest strength offensively. On the rare occasions that the Golden Hurricanes played well last year, it was usually because of running backs Shamari Brooks and Corey Taylor, who combined for over 1,800 yards rushing. Both are back this season, but I’m not convinced they’ll do much damage against the MSU defense given how strong the Spartans are upfront.
Meanwhile, Tulsa is still undecided in a three-way quarterback competition. Luke Skipper and Seth Boomer both played last year but weren’t particularly effective. Baylor transfer Zach Smith has joined the competition. But he’s not exactly a proven commodity, even if he’s probably the most talented of the three. Down the line, Smith and the passing game have some potential. However, right off the bat, the Tulsa offensive line is liable to get pushed around at the line of scrimmage, which was a common theme last season. It may not matter who plays quarterback if MSU’s defensive linemen are in the backfield disrupting things.
On the other side of the ball, the Michigan State offense is going through a transition. Rather than being a power, between-the-tackles type team, the Spartans plan to spread things out a little last year. Most of the time, I’d be wary about such a drastic change heading into the season opener. But I think the Spartans are set up for instant success in their new system.
They have a quarterback in Brian Lewerke who has played well when he hasn’t been bothered by nagging injuries. They also have a nice collection of receivers who all have a distinct skillset. After the way MSU struggled to run the ball last season and given their lack of proven running backs on the roster, putting the ball in Lewerke’s hands a little more may not be such a bad thing.
Admittedly, there’s a slight leap of faith in thinking the Michigan State offense will be immediately improved following a shift in the scheme. But the Tulsa defense doesn’t have many proven pass rushers, which will make them vulnerable against Lewerke and the passing game. I also have high hopes for the MSU defense against a Tulsa offense that’s lacking answers to important questions right now. To me, all of this adds up to a comfortable Michigan State win in which they cover the 22-point spread.