The no. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes will face their first ranked opponent of the season this weekend when they welcome the no. 25 Michigan State Spartans to the Horseshoe. Kickoff is at 7:30 EST on Saturday, October 5 at Ohio Stadium in Columbus. The game can be seen nationally on ABC.
Oddsmakers list the Buckeyes as 20.5-point favorites over Michigan State. The over/under for the game is set at 50 points. Click here for a full list of this week’s college football betting odds.
It’s been smooth sailing for Ryan Day in his first season as the head coach at Ohio State. The Buckeyes are 5-0 and have had an average margin of victory of nearly 44 points. They’ve also won four games in a row by at least 41 points, helping to make up for an uneven opener against Florida Atlantic. The kicker is that the Buckeyes have done it against decent teams. They’ve won two Big Ten games on the road against Indiana and Nebraska by 41-points each and also shut out a solid Cincinnati team. At the moment, they look like a team that’s destined to reach the College Football Playoff. However, this week’s game against Michigan State will be their first big test of the season and their first of four games left on their schedule against ranked teams.
The Spartans, meanwhile, have been a little up and down this year. They’ve had impressive lopsided wins over Western Michigan and Northwestern. However, they lost to Arizona State last month and barely escaped with a home win last week against Indiana, failing to cover the 14-point spread despite adding a defensive touchdown on the last play of the game. This week’s game is where the rubber meets the road for Mark Dantonio and company. The Spartans play four of their next six games on the road, a stretch that includes four games against ranked teams. Of course, this is also a great opportunity for MSU, who is 2-0 in Big Ten play and could make a huge statement if they can pull off the upset over Ohio State.
Surprisingly, Dantonio’s team has won two of their last three visits to Columbus. The Spartans have three wins in their last eight games with Ohio State overall, including a win in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2013. However, those wins feel a little like ancient history after blowout wins by Ohio State the last two seasons, including a 48-3 win for the Buckeyes the last time they hosted Michigan State in Columbus.
I won’t deny that this is a lot of points to swallow in a game between two top-25 teams. But I barely consider Michigan State a top-25 team. More importantly, Ohio State has looked like an unstoppable force. The Buckeyes didn’t blink in what could have been a tricky road game against Nebraska last week. I think they’ll steamroll the Spartans and cover the spread.
I still don’t know if I can trust the MSU offense. In their defense, the Spartans have looked good offensively the past two weeks against Big Ten opponents. But that lackluster effort against Arizona State is tough to push out of my memory. The Michigan State rushing attack has been solid but unspectacular with freshman Elijah Collins becoming the lead back. Plus, I still have questions about Brian Lewerke facing an elite defense. After all, he only completed half his passes last week against Indiana, even if he was still able to throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns.
Even when they’ve been efficient on offense, the Spartans have been lacking in explosive plays. They’re able to sustain long drives and take advantage of short fields when their defense creates a turnover. But I’m not sure if they can rely on that against Ohio State. The Buckeyes have given up 22 points total over their last four games. Even a dynamic Nebraska offense was held to just 231 total yards and seven points last week, and that game was in Nebraska. That doesn’t bode well for the MSU offense on the road.
On the other side of the ball, I’m not sure the Michigan State defense can keep the Ohio State offense contained. The Spartans have done well to stop the run all season. But they haven’t seen anything like the tandem of J.K. Dobbin and Master Teague. Dobbins, in particular, is a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. When you add the dual-threat abilities of quarterback Justin Fields to the equation, even the MSU defense will have its hands full. Fields has accounted for 23 total touchdowns in five games without throwing an interception. He’ll be tested by a strong defense, but he’s also gotten better every week, so I think he’ll rise to the occasion.
In the end, I can’t bank on Michigan State scoring too many points in this game, which is why I think eating the points is a safe pick. Even if the Spartans hold Ohio State to 20 points under their season average of 52, I don’t think the MSU offense can do enough to keep the game within three touchdowns. This will be another textbook blowout by the Buckeyes, which is why I’m betting on them to cover.