Both teams will be trying to start conference play with a win and avoid their second loss of the season when the Northwestern Wildcats play host to the Michigan State Spartans. The game will kick off at noon EST on Saturday, September 21 at Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois. Fans can watch the game from coast to coast on ABC.
According to our Week 4 college football odds, the Spartans are 8.5-point favorites on the road. The game also has an over/under of only 38.5 points.
The Spartans head to Evanston coming off a disappointing loss last week against Arizona State. MSU thought they had tied the game with a late field goal. However, they were flagged for too many men on the field and missed the re-kick, falling 10-7 at home despite out-gaining ASU by nearly 200 yards. Of course, the Spartans also gave up a 75-yard touchdown drive in the closing minutes, as their defense couldn’t come up with a stop in crunch time.
MSU now has the challenge of quickly bouncing back with the start of the Big Ten season. The Spartans will face a brutal stretch of games when October rolls around. That makes their two remaining games in September must-win contests if they don’t last week’s loss to cause their season to spiral out of control.
Meanwhile, Northwestern knows a thing or two about tough losses after falling to Stanford to begin their season. The Wildcats struggled offensively all game but cut Stanford’s lead to 10-7 in the fourth quarter, only to see the Cardinal score a defensive touchdown in the closing seconds to win 17-7. After a week off, Northwestern bounced back over the weekend with a 30-14 home win over UNLV.
It’s worth noting that Northwestern’s quarterback competition was decided for them during the Stanford game when TJ Green suffered a foot injury that required season-ending surgery. Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson is now the undisputed starter moving forward. He’ll lead the Wildcats into Big Ten play as they defend their Big Ten West division title against a schedule that includes three ranked teams.
Saturday’s game will be the last chance for Michigan State’s seniors to get a win over Northwestern. The Wildcats have topped the Spartans in three consecutive years, including last year’s 29-19 win in East Lansing. These teams also played a crazy, triple-overtime in Evanston two years ago. If nothing else, these two teams tend to put on a good show when they face each other.
Michigan State is one of the most frustrating teams in the country to predict. One week, the offense looks dead in the water and the next week it looks like a well-oiled machine. I can’t tell from one week to the next how they’re going to play. This week, I’m going to decide not to trust the Spartans. Instead, I’ll put my faith in the Northwestern defense to make this a low-scoring game, which should allow the Wildcats to at least beat the 8.5-point spread at home.
Northwestern won the Big Ten West on the back of their defense last season. In two games this season, the Wildcats haven’t given me any reason to think their defense can’t play at that same level this year. Admittedly, Stanford isn’t the team we thought they were, but the Northwestern defense held the Cardinal offense to just 10 points in the opener. They also forced three turnovers last week against UNLV, even if they allowed a couple of big plays to keep the Rebels in the game at halftime.
As mentioned, the MSU offense is so unreliable from one week to the next. However, of the three games they’ve played this year, the Spartans have only had one good offensive showing, and that was against Western Michigan. Elijah Collins looked like the answer at running back in that game, but he was kept in check last week. Meanwhile, Brian Lewerke continues to be up and down despite being a senior in his third year as a starter. He’s played well against Northwestern the past two seasons, but I think the Wildcats will finally have his number this time around.
Of course, I can’t exactly rely on the Northwestern offense to put a lot of point on the board. Johnson brings a lot of upside at quarterback, but he’s still lacking experience. On the bright side freshman running back Drake Anderson came out of nowhere to run for 141 yards on 26 carries against UNLV. The problem is that I can’t necessarily count on him replicating that kind of performance, especially against Michigan State. Despite last week’s loss, the MSU defense is still one of the best in the country, especially when it comes to stopping the run.
For whatever reason, these two teams always seem to put points on the board despite both having strong defenses. That makes me a little nervous because Michigan State has more upside offensively. However, on paper, it’s hard to see this game being anything other than a defensive slugfest. That makes me believe Northwestern will keep it close enough to beat the 8.5-point spread.