The no. 14 Iowa Hawkeyes face their biggest test of the season when they visit the no. 19 Michigan Wolverines. Game time is set for noon EST on Saturday, October 5 at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor. The game will be broadcast nationally on Fox.
Current betting lines have Michigan favored by 4.5 points at home. The over/under for the game is set at 48 points. Be sure to check out a full list of this week’s college football odds.
Coming off a blowout loss to Wisconsin a couple of weeks ago, the Wolverines were able to cleanse themselves with a 52-0 win over Rutgers last weekend. Of course, it’ll take more than a lopsided win over the Big Ten bottom dwellers to create some optimism in Michigan, especially after the Wolverines nearly lost to Army earlier in the season. However, a win over a ranked Iowa team would surely get Michigan back on track. On the other hand, this week’s game is the first of five games against ranked teams the Wolverines have left on their schedule, so it’s not an easy path back into contention inside the Big Ten East.
Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes remain among the nation’s unbeaten teams after a 48-3 whipping of Middle Tennessee last week. Iowa survived a close call with in-state rival Iowa State a couple of weeks ago but have cruised in their other three games. However, they now face the meat of their Big Ten schedule with back-to-back games against Michigan and Penn State. The Hawkeyes will probably have to win at least one of those two games if they want their November showdown with Wisconsin to mean something. They could also sneak into the College Football Playoff conversation if they can stay undefeated for a few more weeks.
Iowa is also hoping to keep up their recent success against Michigan. Dating back to 2009, the Hawkeyes have won five of their last six head-to-head meetings with Michigan. However, only one of those five wins came in Ann Arbor. Plus, the last meeting between these two schools came in 2016, so there’s been plenty of roster turnover on both sides since that 14-13 Iowa win.
The Wolverines may have started the season with high expectations, but they’ve done little on the field this season to make me believe in them, especially in a big game. Iowa, on the other hand, has impressed me, especially finding a way to win on the road against Iowa State. To be honest, I’d take the Hawkeyes in this game straight-up, so I’ll gladly take Iowa and the points.
From a confidence standpoint, Michigan will surely feel better about scoring 52 points against Rutgers last week. But I’m still not buying it. This was an offense that looked a little broken again both Army and Wisconsin and beating up on the worst team in the Big Ten doesn’t change that. Even against Rutgers, the running back tandem of Christian Turner and Hassan Haskins combined for less than 100 yards on 20 carries. Meanwhile, freshman Zach Charbonnet has received just seven carries in two games after getting 33 carries and scoring three touchdowns against Army.
It seems like the Wolverines are still looking for their identity on offense. I don’t think that identity involves running the ball down the other team’s throat. Michigan is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry on the season. More importantly, I don’t think the Iowa defense is going to yield much on the ground after standing tall against the run all season.
That will force the Wolverines to lean on quarterback Shea Patterson, who has been a little inconsistent this year. Despite throwing an interception, Patterson looked great against Rutgers. But he looked dreadful the previous week against Wisconsin, completing less than 50% of his passes. I don’t see things getting much better against the Iowa defense this week. Admittedly, the Hawkeyes were a little vulnerable through the air against Iowa State. However, they still yielded just 17 points in this game, and I’m not sure if the Michigan offense can hope for much more than that.
Meanwhile, I have a fair amount of confidence in the Iowa offense under senior quarterback Nathan Stanley. Obviously, it helps that the Hawkeyes have three backs who have already rushed for over 200 yards this season. That gives the Iowa offense plenty of balance and a good backfield rotation against a Michigan defense that was shredded on the ground against Wisconsin. More importantly, Stanley has been Mr. Consistency this season, throwing eight touchdown passes without an interception. He’s a quarterback who can be trusted to put his team in a position to win and avoid the kinds of mistakes that can determine games like this.
Even if the Wolverines manage to pull out a win, I can’t imagine it being easy for them. The Michigan offense has struggled in both of their games against quality opponents this season, so eating the points doesn’t seem like a wise decision. For me, this is a heavy lean toward Iowa and the points.