A mismatched football game tends to reduce everything to the simple and elemental. If the underdog cannot block a running play for a short gain, get any receivers open on passing routes, or execute on special teams without a constant threat of big plays, then the squad is essentially helpless against the favorite.
Is that what will happen to Miami of Ohio when the RedHawks travel to Columbus to play Ohio State this Saturday?
Maybe. But the sheer existence of dominance by 1 side on a gridiron doesn’t make things easy and simple for the ATS bettor.
I’m fond of the wide point spread on a Power-5 vs Group-of-5 mismatch (or the occasional vice-versa with UCF or Boise State playing Rutgers or something) because it makes all handicapping angles reduce to the same formula – if the favored team puts on an inspired, flawless performance there’s little chance that the underdog will cover ATS, and if it’s any kind of tight football game whatsoever then there’s little chance the underdog won’t cover.
The only pain in the neck is that head coaches don’t care about covering the spread.
When you gamble on a tight CFB point spread, you can usually rest assured that the team has the same goals as you want and need it to have. But with a nearly 6-TD line on the Ohio State vs Miami (OH) meeting, the skippers could wind up frustrating bettors on both sides of the line. Miami could have a field goal chance that would cover ATS, but skip it to try for a 4th down and “take away something positive” as the cliche goes.
Ohio State could simply put its scout team on the field with a 5-touchdown lead in the late-going. If the Buckeyes are going to build a huge lead and cover easily, it will probably need to happen well before the 4th quarter.
Who: Miami RedHawks at Ohio State Buckeyes
When: Saturday, September 21st, 3:30 PM EST
Where: The Horseshoe, Columbus, OH
Lines: Miami (-39.5) at OSU (+39.5) / O/U Total: (58)
Ohio State has virtually shocked pundits with a tremendous opening run that includes a 42-0 shut-out of powerful Cincinnati and easy wins over Indiana and Lane Kiffin’s Power-5-Lite program from FAU.
Like a lot of handicappers, I calculated that despite the constant threat of scandal and upheaval, former Buckeye coach Urban Meyer gave OSU a 1-to-3 touchdown tactical advantage that would go away now that the legendary skipper is at-least-temporarily retired from the gridiron.
But there’s no “tactical advantage” like a Heisman-candidate such as Justin Fields at QB, nor like a defense that is at least threatening to be a steady week-in-week-out force on the field as opposed to the flaky unit it often was in 2017 and 2018.
More on OSU’s dominance against the Bearcats:
Following an efficient performance in (the) season opener, Justin Fields finished 20-of-25 for 224 yards and two touchdowns for the fifth-ranked Buckeyes. Fields also ran for 42 yards and two scores on nine attempts. J.K. Dobbins provided a steady presence on the ground as well, carrying the ball 17 times for 141 yards and two touchdowns. Ohio State did a good job of keeping Michael Warren II in check, limiting the Bearcats running back to 15 yards overall and 1.5 yards per carry.
Even though he was merely moving to a different role on the staff, Ryan Day had massive shoes to fill as he succeeded Urban Meyer as Ohio State’s head coach. The Buckeyes are also counting on a first-year starting quarterback who joined the program in January. And yet, this offense is looking a lot like the unit that finished fourth in S&P+ offensive rating in 2018, per Football Outsiders.
Has Miami done anything to make us think a competitive game could occur in Columbus this weekend?
Actually, yes. The RedHawks flunked against common-opponent Cincinnati in Week 3, but in Week 1 the MAC representative’s offense was competent against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Brett Gabbert (yes he’s Blaine’s little bro) went 17-of-24 while the running game produced enough 1st downs to keep the contest close for almost 3 frames.
Miami also appears to be somewhat healthier than Ohio State at this point, though the media’s coverage of individual players and injury scenarios in the MAC leaves a lot to be desired.
Maybe BetFirm should start putting out injury reports on the Group-of-5 and corner the market.
Any team that can beat Cincinnati by 42 points can beat Miami of Ohio by 6 touchdowns or more. Fields is actually taking mild criticism in the Columbus media for not putting up Dwayne Haskins-like numbers over the 1st few games, but that’s ridiculous. Fields has the skill set – stats are largely due to circumstances.
But I am liking the Over (58) much more than the Buckeyes ATS. If Miami pokes the bear early-on, it could be a high-scoring slaughter. On the other hand, Day will replace his entire defense 3 times over if Ohio State is ahead by 40+ at halftime, providing the opening for a decent Miami attack to score in mop-up time and take the total over 60.
Take the Over (58) for Columbus on Saturday.