Two teams with plenty of history between them will open the 2018 season against one another as the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks host the Marshall Thundering Herd. Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST on Saturday, September 1, at Yager Stadium in Oxford, Ohio. Fans can watch the game on ESPN+.
If we check out the Week 1 college football odds, Miami is listed as a 2.5-point favorite. However, that line has flipped after Marshall opened as 2.5-point favorites. The over/under for the game is listed at 49 points.
It’s been a rough stretch for the RedHawks the past five seasons under head coach Chuck Martin. Miami reached the MAC Championship Game and a bowl game in 2016 but took a step backward last year, finishing 5-7. Martin is just 16-33 in his five seasons at Miami. On the bright side, five of their seven losses last year came by single-digit margins, so Miami was not far from a winning season. They hope they can turn some of those losses into wins this season and compete at the top of the MAC East division.
Meanwhile, Doc Holliday has kept things rolling at Marshall. The Herd enjoyed three straight seasons of 10 or more wins from 2013 to 2015, only to fall all the way back to 3-9 in 2016. But Holliday was able to right the ship, as Marshall went 8-5 in 2017, including a win in the New Mexico Bowl. The goal this season is to get back to the top of the Conference-USA East division and compete for a conference championship.
These two schools are separated by less than 200 miles and used to meet regularly when they were both in the MAC. They have started to renew the rivalry, meeting three times since 2013. Marshall has won all three of those meetings, including a 31-26 at home last season. However, the RedHawks will be looking to snap their losing skid against the Herd with this year’s game being played in Ohio.
Let’s be honest, this game could be a PK; these two teams are that close. I expect both teams to have a good season inside their respective conferences. However, I’m a little more comfortable leaning toward Miami, even if it means swallowing 2.5 points. The RedHawks actually out-gained Marshall by over 150 yards when they met a year ago. They know they let that game get away from them, and they won’t allow that to happen again. I’ll take my chances with Miami being able to cover.
The biggest advantage Miami has in this game is the return of senior quarterback Gus Ragland. While he only completed 56% of his passes and missed three games last season, Ragland has a wealth of experience. He’s also careful with the ball, throwing 39 touchdowns to just eight interceptions in his college career. He should be ready to have a big senior season.
The RedHawks also return wide receiver James Gardner, a first-team All-MAC performer a year ago. Gardner averaged 19.7 yards per catch in 2017 while scoring 11 touchdowns, so he’s a big-play receiver. The Herd will return nine starters on defense, but if there’s a weakness on that side of the ball, it’s in the secondary. That could open the door for Gardner and his senior quarterback to make some plays down the field.
Miami will also return a deep and experienced offensive line that could allow them to do more damage on the ground than they did a year ago. If the Marshall defense has to respect Miami’s rushing attack, there will be even more room for Gardner to make plays against the Herd’s secondary.
To be fair, Marshall is returning almost all of their best skill players from a season ago. They have the playmakers to do some damage as well, even if Miami has eight starters back on defense that expects to be stingy this season. However, the key difference is that Marshall no longer has the services of quarterback Chase Litton, a three-year starter who took off for the NFL after last season.
Holliday is yet to announce whether it’ll be Alex Thomson, a transfer from FCS program Wagner, or redshirt freshman Isaiah Green who gets the start against Miami. Either way, the Herd will be relying on an inexperienced quarterback. Obviously, Green has never taken a snap in a college game after sitting out last year as a redshirt. Thomson, meanwhile, played great for Wagner in 2016 but missed most of last season due to injury. If he starts, Thomson will have a year of rust to shake off in addition to moving up to a higher level of competition.
The fact that Miami has an experienced senior quarterback and Marshall doesn’t is enough for me to lean toward the RedHawks. Both teams return experienced defenses, strong offensive lines, and capable skill players. But the quarterback position is everything, and Miami has a clear advantage at that position. That will be the difference, as I expect Miami to win this game and cover the 2.5-point spread.