One of the highlights of the first weekend of college football action is the showdown between the no. 8 Miami Hurricanes and no. 25 LSU Tigers. Kickoff is set for 7:30 on Sunday, September 2, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will be broadcast nationally on ABC.
If we look at the Week 1 odds, the Hurricanes are 2.5-point favorites. This line has barely moved at all since Miami opened as 3-point favorites. The over/under for the game is set at 48.5 points.
It’s been a long time since Miami fans were this excited for the start of a season. The Hurricanes started out last season 10-0, rising all the way to no. 2 in the CFP rankings. However, the end of their season did not go as planned. They lost their regular-season finale to Pitt, got blown out by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, and lost the Orange Bowl (a de facto home game) to Wisconsin.
Of course, three straight losses to close out the 2017 season hasn’t stopped the Hurricanes hype train. Miami fans still believe they will be a national championship contender in 2018.
Things are a little different down on the Bayou. Despite a 9-4 season in 2017, fans are less than thrilled with head coach Ed Orgeron. Of course, that 9-4 season included a blowout loss to Mississippi State, a home defeat against Troy, and a Citrus Bowl loss to Notre Dame.
Orgeron now finds himself with an impatient fan base and a team with a few fundamental questions that need to be answered heading into the season. While the Tigers are accustomed to playing marquee opponents opening weekend, perhaps starting the season against Miami isn’t an ideal scenario for Orgeron and LSU.
Somehow, these two storied programs haven’t crossed paths since 2005 when the Tigers obliterated Miami in the Peach Bowl 40-3. This time around, both teams need this game badly. The Hurricanes don’t want to see all of their preseason hype spoiled by an early-season loss. Meanwhile, LSU needs a big win early in the year to inspire confidence, especially with an unforgiving SEC schedule ahead of them. Needless to say, this should be an intriguing game.
This figures to be a close game and one that may not see that many points. However, the memory of Miami’s defense from a season ago and how they created turnovers makes me lean toward the Hurricanes. I’m not sold on the LSU offense, especially when it comes to avoiding costly turnovers that can make a big difference. With that in mind, I’ll swallow a few points and side with the Hurricanes.
The Tigers have both a new offensive coordinator and a new starting quarterback in Ohio State transfer Joe Burrow. While Burrow beat out Myles Brennan for the starting job, he didn’t arrive at LSU until the summer, so he’s had a lot to learn in a short period of time. Also, it’s not as if he got a ton of playing time as the backup at Ohio State, so he’s still short on playing experience.
Up against the Miami defense, the Tigers may be forced to keep things a little vanilla until Burrow gets more comfortable. That could make it difficult to move the ball against the Hurricanes, who have SEC-caliber speed and athleticism on defense. Of course, if LSU opens up the playbook a little, they could risk turning the ball over against the opportunistic Miami defense.
It also doesn’t help that the Tigers will be entering the season with a young offensive line and without a lot of established players at either wide receiver or running back. LSU’s best offensive player may be Texas Tech transfer Jonathan Giles, who posted impressive numbers two seasons ago but had to sit out last season. Even with the long line at running backs at LSU, the Tigers begin 2018 without one who has proven himself, even in a backup role.
Of course, the Miami offense is not without questions of their own. Malik Rosier gives them an experienced quarterback with loads of talent. But he was so hot and cold last season that the Hurricanes didn’t always know what to expect from him. If he can play four quarters anywhere close to the best of his ability, the Hurricanes are going to win this game easily. However, Rosier has proven that he can be mistake-prone at times.
Meanwhile, the LSU defense has the kind of athletes who can take advantage of Rosier if he makes mistakes. The Tigers are just as capable of forcing takeaways as Miami. The Hurricanes are also without a power running game or a lot of proven receivers unless Ahmmon Richards can return to full health after his 2017 season ended early due to injury. Without a lot of proven players around him, the success of Miami’s offense will ride on Rosier’s shoulders.
I’m going to go out on a little bit of a limb and say that Rosier will be just fine. Despite the Hurricanes losing three in a row to close out last season, it’s not as if Rosier didn’t prove himself against quality defenses. I’m a little more concerned about the LSU offense than I am the Hurricanes. In such a tight matchup, that’s enough for me to be comfortable leaning toward Miami covering a 2.5-point spread.