A strange thing happens whenever a well-known program has lost to Army, Navy, or Air Force. It was never anything that the service academy did. The favorites just blew it. After all, if neither Paul Finebaum or Booger McFarland are familiar with an opponent’s individual players and coaches, it couldn’t have just had a good game and beaten the bigger brand. Navy and Army are treated like static abstractions, like “Bengals QB #14” on a video game not licensed by the NFLPA. If you beat them you played well, and if you lose to them, you stunk.
But Memphis and Navy are conference rivals, after all, and so the Tigers can be forgiven for losing to the talented Midshipmen last Saturday. The Middies obviously played better than they did in a Week 1 loss to Hawaii, and Memphis does not have a Paxton Lynch – or even a Malcolm Perry – at QB.
As action opens on the betting lines for the Tigers’ Week 3 OOC match-up with Georgia State, it appears that Vegas bookies are willing to give Memphis the benefit of the doubt to go along with its 1-1 record. The American Athletic Conference representative is favored to whip the visiting Sun Belt school by at least 3+ touchdowns.
Who: Georgia State Panthers at Memphis Tigers
When: Friday, September 14th, 7 PM EST
Where: Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN
Lines: GSU (+26) at Memphis (-26) / O/U Total: None
One element that makes the point spread for Memphis-GSU look a little dubious is that the Tigers haven’t had a quality win as of yet. Their Week 1 opener was a thrash-for-cash romp over Mercer in which QB Brady White looked like a million dollars, throwing 5 touchdown passes.
It was a tougher row to how for White in Week 2 against Navy. As beat writer Evan Barnes puts it:
Although Memphis’ offense struggled in the first half, White was 12-for-14 passing at one point. But as the game wore on, White struggled to maintain that rhythm or challenge the Navy secondary downfield.
A week after passing for 358 yards and five touchdowns, he was 15-of-25 for 145 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. It was a back-to-earth moment that showed the junior still has room to grow — and he knew it.
“I felt like I could’ve done a lot better job and there were certain situations where I felt I let the team down, but I know that’s why you play four quarters and why you play a whole season,” White said.
Memphis also struggled in the 4th quarter, finishing the game with 4 turnovers. The defense did an admirable job against Malcolm Perry and the Navy offense, but stopping what the Mids do has little relation to stopping a more-conventional NCAA offense this Friday night.
Running back Tony Pollard has also been injured, hampering the Tigers’ ground game. He will attempt to handle a few more carries against Georgia State.
Georgia State got off to a rousing start in the Panthers’ only brush with FBS competition so far. (The season-opener was a slender win over soon-to-be FBS Kennesaw State.) Destin Coates, who ran for over 7 yards per carry, rushed for a 1st quarter TD as the Panthers took a 7-0 lead over NC State.
It was all downhill from there as the Wolfpack dominated the final 3 quarters. QB Dan Ellington got rave reviews after going 15-for-28 for almost 200 yards against a tough Power-5 opponent, but it bears mentioning that he didn’t throw a TD pass (even against Wolfpack reserves) and didn’t do all that much to help the visitors on the ground, averaging just 3.0 yards on option carries and scrambles.
Fans of the NFL know how difficult it is to predict a game without any kind of expository sample work to go on. The Detroit Lions were supposed to handle the New York Jets in Week 1, but bettors had no way of knowing that the home team would crap the bed at Ford Field. Now that we’ve got some type of sample, line forecasters won’t expect the Lions to be a substantial favorite for a while…but given how average the Jets were expected to be, who knew in advance what would happen?
It’s best to fall back on general considerations. Memphis plays in a conference that rivals the Big 12 in excellent offense and occasional good defense. Georgia State’s defense won’t be any more physical or speedy that Navy’s, and given better weather, White and the Tiger offense should fare a little better in Week 3.
But I’m liking Georgia State to cover an extremely-wide point spread. Last season, GSU lost by 24 to Troy and by 21 to Appalachian State, both teams that would have pretty good games with Memphis. In 2016, the program only went 3-9 but still nearly upset Wisconsin.
We don’t know how good or bad Memphis is going to be, so we have to assume they’re decent but not great for a mid-major. GSU can hang tight and likely lose by 2 or 3 touchdowns if a series upset bid doesn’t take place.
Take the visitors to cover (+26) at the Liberty Bowl.