Both teams will be looking to stay undefeated in conference play this week as the Marshall Thundering Herd host the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders in a Conference-USA clash. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 EST on Friday, October 5, at Joan C. Edwards Stadium in Huntington, West Virginia. Fans can catch the action on CBS Sports Network.
Oddsmakers list Marshall as 6.5-point favorites at home. Click here to check out a full list of this week’s college football odds.
Marshall has jumped ahead of the pack in the Conference-USA East division after a win last week against Western Kentucky. The Thundering Herd also has wins this year over Miami (Ohio) and Eastern Kentucky. At 3-1, Marshall’s only loss this year came against N.C. State, although they also had a tough game against South Carolina canceled by Hurricane Florence. Despite the three wins, Marshall hasn’t won games convincingly or displayed a lot of game control, so they still have much to prove as they enter the heart of their schedule.
Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee is just 2-2 on the season after suffering a pair of lopsided losses to SEC foes Vanderbilt and Georgia. However, the Blue Raiders managed to take care of business against Tennessee-Martin and found a way to come out on top in last week’s conference opener against Florida Atlantic. Middle Tennessee scored a touchdown and a two-point conversion with less than a minute to play to score a huge conference win in a game they trailed by 14 points in the 2nd half.
Both of these teams enter this contest 1-0 in conference play. They also appear to be the top contenders in the C-USA East division aside from Florida Atlantic. In short, the winner of this game could be in the driver’s seat with regard to reaching the Conference-USA Championship Game. Middle Tennessee State, in particular, could take a commanding lead if they can land head-to-head wins against both Florida Atlantic and Marshall, so there is a lot on the line in this game.
Marshall has had their way with MTSU in recent years, with the Thundering Herd winning three of the last four meetings, all by substantial margins. Middle Tennessee’s only win during that span came by three points at home in 2015. However, I’m not sure I see history repeating itself on Friday night. Marshall hasn’t impressed me enough to swallow the points against a Blue Raiders team coming off a big win. I’ll take the underdog and the points in this game.
One thing I know for sure about Middle Tennessee State is that they are already battle tested. They may not have played well against Vanderbilt or Georgia, but playing those teams in road environments will be good preparation for playing at Marshall. The Blue Raiders won’t be intimidated by playing on the road or the level of competition, and I think that’ll play in their favor.
I also like how Middle Tennessee was able to come back from a deficit against a solid Florida Atlantic team last week. Quarterback Brent Stockstill is as talented and experienced as they get in Conference-USA, so it’s tough betting against him. HIs numbers this year aren’t eye-popping, nor does he have a great running game to help. But Stockstill has been accurate and efficient with the ball, completing 68% of his passes with eight touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s also someone you trust late with the game on the line, as he showed last week.
To be fair, Marshall also scored late in the 4th quarter last week to erase a deficit. However, they did so against a lesser opponent in Western Kentucky, who lost to an FCS school earlier this year. Marshall was also in that position because they turned the ball over four times. In fact, the Thundering Herd has committed seven turnovers in their last two games. That’s a huge concern against an MTSU defense will be aggressive and eager to force mistakes.
Marshall also has some uncertainty at the quarterback position after freshman Isaiah Green required help getting off the field during last week’s game. Green is also completing just 55% of his passes with six interceptions in four games. If he plays, he’ll still be vulnerable to turnovers after his play the last couple of weeks. The Thundering Herd is also lacking a competent running game to help Green. I expect MTSU to shut down the run and then put pressure on the young quarterback.
In Marshall’s most relevant games this season, they have a 7-point win over Miami (Ohio) and a 3-point win over Western Kentucky. Those results don’t inspire a ton of confidence when it comes to covering 6.5 points against a Middle Tennessee team that beat the defending Conference-USA champs last week. Even if Marshall can pull out another close win, this figures to be a close game. I feel more comfortable leaning toward the underdog MTSU and the points in this game.