The no. 6 LSU Tigers get their 2019 campaign underway with a home game against the Georgia Southern Eagles. Kickoff is set for 7:30 EST on Saturday, August 31, at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Fans can catch all of the action on ESPNU.
At home, LSU is listed as a 27-point favorite with an over/under of 53.5 points. Click here to check out a full list of this week’s college football betting odds.
When Ed Orgeron took over as LSU’s head coach midway through the 2016 season, there was plenty of skepticism. But he’s earned the trust of the Tiger faithful. In two and a half seasons under Orgeron, the Tigers are 25-9 and 15-7 in SEC play.
LSU is coming off a 10-3 campaign that included four wins over teams that were ranked in the top-10 at the time. However, the Tigers are still looking up at Alabama in the SEC West and have a steep hill to climb if they want to reach the College Football Playoff despite beginning the season as a top-10 team. They need to start out the season strong, especially with a showdown with Texas on tap next week.
Meanwhile, Georgia Southern is also coming off a 10-3 season in 2018. Head coach Chad Lunsford took over a 0-6 team midway through the 2017 season and has led an incredible turnaround ever since. The Eagles closed the 2017 season with two wins in their final six games and proceeded to go 10-3 in 2018, including a win in the Camellia Bowl.
Obviously, Georgia Southern doesn’t play a difficult schedule in the Sun Belt. But they did beat eventual Sun Belt champion Appalachian State. The Eagles also faced Clemson in a non-conference game last season, so they’ve faced elite teams in the past and shouldn’t be in awe of their visit to Tiger Stadium on Saturday.
For a game with a spread that’s nearly four touchdowns, this is actually a rather intriguing matchup. Georgia Southern is a quality mid-major that plays a unique style that can be difficult and frustrating for big programs like LSU to face. I don’t think the Tigers necessarily need to be an upset alert. But I have some concerns about them being able to cover this spread, so I’ll lean toward Georgia Southern to lose by less than 27 points.
The Eagles are one of the few teams in the country that run the triple-option, and they run it quite well. Some of the running backs will be different from last season, as 1,000-yard rusher Wesley Fields is out of eligibility. But quarterback Shai Werts is back, and he’s the most important figure in the GSU offense. Werts is a great athlete who makes good decisions while running the triple-option. He also throws the ball just often enough to keep opposing defenses honest. He’s also an efficient passer, tossing 10 touchdowns last season without an interception.
Like most years, the LSU defense is overflowing with talent at all three levels. Over the long run, the Tigers have a chance to be one of the best defensive teams in the country. But facing a triple-option team tends to mitigate the physical talent of a defense and put more of the focus on simply being in the right place at the right time. With this being the season opener, the Tigers have had plenty of time to prepare for the triple-option. But it’s not like they spent their entire training camp practicing against it, so it could take some getting used to.
Perhaps the most important thing to remember is that the GSU triple-option will eat up the clock. Obviously, that’s not the case if the LSU defense can force three-and-outs, but successful drives can take large chunks of time off the clock. Last year, the Georgia Southern defense allowed 21 points per game in large part because their offense dominated the time of possession. That’s one factor that could prevent LSU from running away with this game and covering the spread.
If the Tigers are going to win by four touchdowns, they’ll need to create explosive plays on offense. In the past, that’s not necessarily been their game. The caveat is that the Tigers are transitioning to an offense that will rely less on power running between the tackles and ask quarterback Joe Burrow to throw the ball more. That kind of offense is a good fit for Burrow, who had 16 touchdown passes and just five interceptions last season.
However, I have some concerns about the LSU offense heading into the season. First, the Tigers are lacking explosive receivers outside of Justin Jefferson. Also, Burrow completed less than 58% of his passes last season, so he’s not always the most accurate quarterback. If the Tigers want to run the ball between the tackles, I have no doubt they can overpower GSU at the line of scrimmage. But the Eagles do have a talented secondary that can prevent big plays down the field.
In the end, I think Georgia Southern will do just enough to frustrate LSU and keep the Tigers from pulling away. The Eagles are a tricky team to play and a little more talented than most Sun Belt programs. I think LSU will win, but I like Georgia Southern to beat the spread.