The nightcap in the SEC this week is an East division battle between the South Carolina Gamecocks and Kentucky Wildcats. The action gets started at 7:30 EST on Saturday, September 28 at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, South Carolina. Fans can watch the game on the SEC Network.
According to our Week 5 college football odds, this is likely to be a close game with South Carolina listed as 2-point favorites at home. The over/under for the game is set at 51.5 points.
The Wildcats head to Columbia hoping to snap a two-game losing skid. Kentucky’s problems started a few weeks ago when they lost starting quarterback Terry Wilson to a season-ending injury. The following week, the Wildcats blew an 11-point fourth-quarter lead in a home loss to Florida. The Cats failed to bounce back last week, dropping another SEC game to Mississippi State.
Of course, the season is far from over. Outside of a road trip to Georgia next month, virtually every game left on Kentucky’s schedule is at worst a toss-up, including Saturday’s road game against South Carolina. The Wildcats will also have a chance to regroup a little with next week off. But they also don’t want to head into their bye on a three-game losing streak.
South Carolina, meanwhile, is far more desperate for a win than Kentucky. The Gamecocks also lost their starting quarterback to injury early in the season. Much like the Wildcats, they’ve struggled to recover from that loss. South Carolina heads into the last weekend in September at 1-3, with losses to North Carolina, Alabama, and Missouri.
To make matters worse, the Gamecocks face a brutal schedule the rest of the season that includes three top-10 teams. Barring an upset win in one of those games, every other game South Carolina plays the rest of the season is a must-win if the Gamecocks want to reach a bowl game and keep head coach of Will Muschamp off the hot seat.
On top of that, the Gamecocks are trying to snap a five-game losing streak against Kentucky. Mark Stoops has lost just one game to South Carolina since taking over the Wildcats. He’s won all three head-to-head meetings with Muschamp, including a 24-10 Wildcats victory in Lexington last season.
Desperation should play into South Carolina’s favor this week. They need a win more than Kentucky, and I think they’ll get it. The Gamecocks have played better the last two weeks than the scores indicate. I also have more concerns about Kentucky’s quarterback situation than I do for South Carolina. With a spread of less than a field goal, I’ll take my chances with the home team.
While the score says the Gamecocks gave up 34 points to Missouri last week, 14 of those points came from the Missouri defense, meaning the South Carolina defense held Missouri to a reasonable 20 points. More importantly, one of those defensive touchdowns for the Tigers was a 100-yard pick-six. If that’s a South Carolina touchdown or field goal instead of a Missouri touchdown, it’s a completely different game. On top of that, quarterback Ryan Hilinski missed part of the game due to injury. He should be good to play on Saturday, so I’m not going to worry too much.
I was also somewhat impressed by the Gamecocks the previous week against Alabama. It wasn’t as lopsided as some predicted. South Carolina was even able to beat the spread against the Crimson Tide. After those two games, coming home to play Kentucky is going to feel like a walk in the park and a chance to get back on track.
As far as Hilinski is concerned, he’s handled himself well for a true freshman despite facing plenty of adversity over the first three starts of his career. The one interception he threw against Missouri was obviously disastrous. But he should be able to grow from it. I also think that South Carolina has a nice supporting cast around him with veteran running backs Rico Dowdle and Tavien Feaster, as well as established receivers in Bryan Edwards and Shi Smith. I think Hilinski will be just fine this week against Kentucky.
Meanwhile, things haven’t gone particularly well for Kentucky’s new starter Sawyer Smith in his two starts. He threw three interceptions in the loss to Florida and was dreadful a week ago against Mississippi State, completing just 15 of his 41 pass attempts. Smith’s problem is that the South Carolina defense he’ll face this week is nearly as good as the teams he’s faced the past two weeks. The Wildcats have also seen their running game slow down just a little without a quarterback like Wilson who’s a threat with his legs.
All things considered, I think South Carolina is closer to putting together a strong performance, especially at home. Kentucky, on the other hand, was a little discouraging last week and could have longer to go after their change at quarterback. With this game being close to a straight-up PK, I have no hesitation in leaning toward South Carolina.