One of these SEC teams will suffer their first loss of the season when the Kentucky Wildcats host the no. 14 Mississippi State Bulldogs. The game is scheduled for 7:00 EST on Saturday, September 22, at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky. Fans can catch all the action on ESPN2.
According to this week’s college football odds, The Bulldogs are 10-point favorites on the road. However, early betting has favored Kentucky, as Mississippi State was initially favored by 10.5 points when the game opened.
Despite a new head coach, Mississippi State has picked up where they left off this season. Statistically, the Bulldogs are one of the highest-scoring and best defensive teams in the country. Part of that is the result of playing Stephen F. Austin and Louisiana-Lafayette early in the season. However, State also deserves a great deal of credit for a convincing 31-10 win at Kansas State a couple of weeks ago. The Bulldogs have been a somewhat forgotten team in the SEC West. But starting this week, they’ll have a chance to prove themselves in conference play.
Kentucky also enters this game at 3-0, although they already have an SEC win on their resume after breaking their three-decade-long losing streak to Florida a couple of weeks ago. In addition to that win in Gainesville, the Wildcats also have wins over Central Michigan and Murray State. Of course, those three wins haven’t been enough to convince many people that the Cats will be relevant in the SEC East this year. However, a win over Mississippi State would start to change that perception.
Despite playing in different divisions, the Bulldogs and Wildcats meet every year. While Mississippi State is only leading the all-time series by a single game, the Bulldogs have won eight of the last years. Alas, Kentucky won two years ago the last time State made the trip to Lexington, potentially setting the stage for another competitive game on Saturday night.
I’m still not convinced that Kentucky is for real. But I was wrong for going against them when they played Florida, so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt in this game. If nothing else, both teams love running the ball, which should keep the clock moving and shorten the game, making it a little less likely Mississippi State is able to cover. With the line in double digits, I’ll learn toward Kentucky and the points.
Even at this early stage in the season, the Wildcats have found their identity as a team that loves to run the ball. Benny Snell Jr. is one of the most underrated backs in the SEC, as he’s averaging six yards per carry this season. Kentucky has also found a new quarterback in Terry Wilson who fits the run-based scheme. Wilson is a constant threat with his legs, averaging seven yards every time he keeps the ball. Even more impressive, Wilson is completing almost 70% of his passes, making him an efficient passer and a threat to occasionally throw over the top of defenses if they inch too close to the line of scrimmage.
That being said, the Mississippi State front-7 is one of the best in the SEC. They haven’t allowed any team to have much success on the ground this season, not even Kansas State, a program that typically has a potent rushing attack.
However, after the Wildcats rushed for over 300 yards against Florida, I think there’s a chance Kentucky can move the ball on the ground against the Bulldogs. I don’t think they’ll have quite as much success as they did against Florida when both Snell and Wilson ran for over 100 yards. But the Cats will pose a legitimate threat on the ground, perhaps even enough to open up some throwing lanes for Wilson.
On the other side of the ball, Mississippi State will likely have a similar strategy. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald missed the first game of the season, but he and running back Kylin Hill were an unstoppable force against Kansas State, who is usually strong defensively. As a passer, Fitzgerald has been a little off early in the season. He better last week, albeit against a lesser team. The good news is that the Bulldogs should be able to run the ball enough to avoid putting in Fitzgerald in spots where he has to throw.
The biggest x-factor in this game figures to be the Kentucky defense. On paper, all the numbers look good for the Wildcats thus far. However, Mississippi State will surely pose more of a challenge than either Central Michigan or Florida. The Bulldogs have a running quarterback and enough receivers who are deep threats so that Kentucky can’t become too focused on stopping the run. The potential to get burned on long throws is my biggest concern for the Wildcats in this game.
In the end, I’ll put a little faith in Kentucky. The Wildcats are at home where they typically play competitive games. Even if the defense struggles a little, I think the Kentucky rushing attack will be able to keep pace with Mississippi State enough to keep the game close. With a 10-point spread, I’ll be on this being a single-digit loss for Kentucky that will at least beat the spread.