The Kentucky Wildcats get their 2018 campaign underway when they play host to the Central Michigan Chippewas. Game time is set for 3:30 EST on Saturday, September 1 at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky. Fans can watch the game on ESPNU.
Oddsmakers list the Wildcats as 17-point favorites, a number that’s down slightly after Kentucky opened as 20-point favorites. The over/under for the game is listed at 50.5 points. Check out a full list of the Week 1 college football odds.
After five years in Lexington, Mark Stoops appears to have the Wildcats moving in the right direction. Kentucky has been to a bowl game the past two seasons, going 7-6 and 4-4 in SEC play in each year. However, the Wildcats also lost four of their last five to finish the 2017 season. They also missed out on being a 9-win team a season ago after failing to close out potential wins against Florida and Ole Miss. Considering the state of the SEC East right now, Kentucky fans may not view 7-6 as good enough anymore.
At Central Michigan, John Bonamego has taken the Chippewas to a bowl game in each of his three seasons at the school. While CMU is just 21-18 over those three seasons, Bonamego has built the program to the point where the Chippewas expect to be competing for a place in the MAC Championship Game on a yearly basis.
In addition to reaching bowl games the last three years, Central Michigan has beaten a power conference team in each of the past two seasons. The Chippewas knocked off Oklahoma State in 2016, albeit in controversial fashion, and had little trouble defeating Kansas last season. They will head to Lexington not just believing but expecting to beat the Wildcats.
If the spread were just a few points less, I’d be a little more confident in swallowing the points. But I’m comfortable enough with the Wildcats to lean toward them at -17. Both teams have question marks, most notably at quarterback. But I believe the Wildcats are solidified enough in other areas to secure a comfortable win against the pesky Chippewas.
Stoops has chosen junior college transfer Terry Wilson, a former Oregon quarterback, to start the season opener. Whether Wilson has the accuracy as a passer to compete at this level remains to be seen. However, his athleticism and ability as a runner make him the ideal choice to run Kentucky’s read-option offense. With four starters returning on the offensive line, not to mention the return of Benny Snell, who has rushed for over 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons, the Wildcats could have a scary rushing attack this year.
To be fair, the Chippewas have seen their fair share of quality rushing attacks in the MAC. The CMU defense was also one of the best in that conference a year ago. However, they’ve lost some of their most important players from last year’s defense, particularly up front. I’m not sure if the Central Michigan front-7 is going to have much success slowing down Wilson and Snell on the ground. Even if the Wildcats don’t do much damage through the air, Wilson and Snell could both have huge days running the ball to lead the Kentucky offense.
Meanwhile, the Central Michigan offense will also be breaking in a new quarterback. Sophomore Tony Poljan has big shoes to fill after Shane Morris threw for over 3,200 yards and 27 touchdowns for the Chippewas last season. At 6’7’’, Poljan has the size and arm strength to be a big-time quarterback, but he’s still lacking in experience. The Chippewas are also replacing their three best wide receivers from a season ago, meaning they’ll be relying on an inexperienced quarterback and an inexperienced group of receivers early in the season. On top of that, the CMU offensive line remains a little shaky, which is why Morris endured 23 sacks a season ago.
With so many questions facing the CMU offense heading into the season, I can see the Kentucky defense having a good outing in the opener. The Wildcats had some issues on that side of the ball last year. But they’ll return eight starters this season, including some with NFL potential. The secondary, in particular, is loaded with talent and could wreak havoc against a young quarterback and unproven receivers. Kentucky should also have enough athletes upfront to put some pressure on Poljan if the Central Michigan offensive line isn’t up to the task of containing an SEC defensive line.
Let’s be clear in saying that this game is far from a lock for Kentucky. There is obvious uncertainty in the sense that we don’t know for sure what to expect from either quarterback. Either one could be a hidden gem. However, there’s enough of a talent disparity between these two teams to make me believe the Wildcats will come out on top. If Kentucky can run the ball the way I think they’re capable of running it with Snell and an athletic quarterback, I’m confident in swallowing the points and learning toward the Wildcats to cover the spread.