If we assume that every college football team in the FBS is always getting better or worse relative to the competition, then there are only 3 types of match-ups the handicapper is actually faced with.
#1 – The programs are each improving. This is probably the favorite type of scrum for national analysts, who like to focus on teams getting “hot” at the right time late in the season…and meeting each other head-on to see just who’s gotten hotter.
#2 – The programs are each headed downhill. Those games can be frustrating to tout and to watch, but occasionally fascinating as the teams try to hang on to their reputation and bowl-eligibility.
#3 – 1 program is on the way up, and the other program is on the way down.
Despite matching 2-1 records, this Saturday afternoon’s contest between Texas Christian and visiting Kansas University is a #3.
TCU simply isn’t the powerhouse it was back when Gary Patterson’s charges contended for a national title and fought Baylor in 1 of the highest-scoring Top 10 results of all time. That doesn’t mean the Horned Frogs aren’t any good in 2019…we’re just not dealing with an elite gridiron school in the vein of Clemson, Ohio State, or Oklahoma from the Big 12.
Meanwhile, the Kansas Jayhawks are alive – finally – under the tutelage of new coach Les Miles. A lot of legendary football skippers like to show up to a rebuilding project and wipe the slate clean, starting from scratch with green unproven talents who are almost certain to lose badly for the initial year or 2 – think Jimmy Johnson with the Dallas Cowboys or Paul Johnson with the Navy Midshipmen. Miles – by accident or by design – has somehow whipped up a competitive squad right away, going 2-1 in his 1st trio of ballgames at KU.
The question is simple. Have the Jayhawks improved and have the Horned Frogs diminished to the point where this weekend’s visitors could “pass up” TCU with an upset win – which would weirdly be KU’s 2nd in a row in the series – as if the teams are intersecting trains headed in opposite directions?
Or is Texas Christian still the kind of tough Big 12 rival that Kansas will continue to have major problems with in the short term?
Betting opened on Monday with TCU favored by 2 TDs and a field goal – a whopping margin even in the friendly confines of Amon Carter. Since then, however, gamblers have flocked to the underdog Jayhawks, moving the point spread to around 2 scores + XPs with Friday’s action still to be added on the handle.
Who: Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Christian University Horned Frogs
When: Saturday, September 28th, 12 PM EST
Where: Amon Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Lines: KU (+14.5) at TCU (-14.5) / O/U Total: (49)
It’s interesting to look back at BetFirm’s previous tout of a Kansas-TCU game…in which the Over/Under total of (60) reflected the likelihood of a huge blow-out for the Horned Frogs. And the favorites did in fact handle Kansas easily in 2017, though the series has been a lot more contested than that in most recent years. Texas Christian had a dominant defense when the Frogs first shot to the top of the Big 12 under Patterson, but that side of the program has eroded along with most of the D-units in a wide-open league filled with fireworks.
When defenses are pedestrian, an underdog can more-easily control the egg and prevail, and KU actually came close to beating TCU in 2015 and ’16 before finally getting over the hump last season with a shocking 27-26 triumph in Lawrence.
Las Vegas seems to consider that outcome a fluke, and maybe it was, considering Kansas went 1-8 in the Big 12 last year while TCU reached the postseason. The close calls in the other years suggest that these schools are more evenly-matched from a talent POV than ‘cappers are willing to admit to themselves, though…and now that KU has a legitimate 1st-rate coaching staff there’s no excuse for penciling-in a win for the Fort Worth squad at home unless the Horned Frogs are clearly a superior team in all aspects.
Hard to believe that’s the case – and that line-movement on the point spread might be the most logical thing the betting public has been responsible for in a few Saturdays.
KU began the Miles era by struggling to deal with FCS and Sun Belt foes Indiana State and Coastal Carolina, going 1-1 through what would be a “cupcake” schedule for most Power-5 teams. But over the past 2 weekends the Jayhawks have impressed. Rushers Khalil Herbert and Pooka Williams Jr. combined for 300+ yards as Kansas doubled-up Boston College 48-24 on September 13th, and while I’ve been clear that we shouldn’t expect a terrific push from BC this season, that’s still a runaway win over a respectable squad from the ACC.
Then the Jayhawks fought West Virginia for 4 quarters the following week, holding a formerly elite pass offense to 202 yards through the air as Miles’ quarterback Carter Stanley went nearly 80% with 3 touchdown tosses. The KU offensive line is actually playing well, and the defense and special teams are at least motivated with a renewed sense of hope and a 2-2 record.
Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs are – you guessed it – regressing. Texas Christian held serve vs the FCS in Week 1 and later crowned Purdue of the Big Ten by 3 touchdowns, but Week 4 brought gloom and doom as the squad lost at home to visiting Southern Methodist of the Group-of-5, 41-38.
TCU did not give up an overwhelming yardage total to SMU but the squad was mistake-prone, couldn’t rush the passer, and couldn’t protect an inaccurate Max Duggan in the pocket.
The opening point spread was insane considering the newfound competitiveness of Kansas and the inconsistency of TCU. It’s still a few points too wide.
Take KU to cover (+14.5) on Saturday.