Texas Christian’s patience in HC Gary Patterson may be about to pay off. It was around 3 years ago that a souped up (and dirty) Baylor team beat TCU 61-58 in a high-stakes gunfight, famous for its weird implications on the College Football Playoff race in addition to bad officiating and lack of defense.
The Horned Frogs, formerly a tough defensive unit, seemed to be going the way of the entire Big 12 – score, then let your opponent score as quickly as possible so you can get the ball back.
But Patterson’s program was recruiting another fine ‘D to go along with a still-powerful offense. In 2017, the Frogs almost hiccuped when giving up 30+ points to SMU, but would soon reel off 3 super-impressive conference wins in a row over Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Kansas State. TCU now stands at 7-0 and is an early favorite to win the Big 12 and reach the CFP.
It won’t get any easier this weekend, as they travel to Ames to play #25th ranked Iowa State, a team that is gaining a reputation as a giant-killer. The Cyclones knocked-off Oklahoma earlier in the year and vanquished any chance Texas Tech had of competing for a Big 12 title with a dominant 31-13 win over the Red Raiders last week.
Who: Texas Christian Horned Frogs at Iowa State Cyclones
When: Saturday, October 28th, 3:30 PM EST
Where: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
Lines: TCU (-7) at Iowa State (+7) / O/U Total: (49)
The point-total line has been falling. An opening line of (53.5) has gone down as much as 5 points at some sports books since betting opened. What do the bettors see in the defenses?
Certainly, ISU’s defensive performance against Texas Tech was a clinic. The Cyclones did not allow a touchdown pass and held TTSU to a lone touchdown after 3 minutes into the 1st quarter. On the previous Saturday, ISU shut-out Kansas. Meanwhile, TCU has not allowed a touchdown in 2 games.
Iowa State QB David Park’s numbers have been modest. But sophomore RB David Montgomery may provide a spark. The youngster has averaged almost 5 yards per carry and has scored a prolific 8 touchdowns in ’17.
QB Kenny Hill of TCU has been excellent, with 15 TDs to just 3 picks on the year. ISU has been playing smart, quality football in all 3 phases, but may not have the size or speed in the defensive backfield to cope with WRs like athletic senior John Diarse of the Frogs.
The best reason to buck the trend on the O/U is the overall situation. This feels like a game where the hosts will challenge the favorites in the 1st half, probably going to the locker room with a 14-10 advantage or disadvantage. In the 2nd 30:00 TCU’s superior depth and physicality should allow the Frogs to hop away with it. At that point, ISU will begin to take chances, leading to points off turnovers.
Take the over for a winning bet in Ames.