The Iowa Hawkeyes will get their 2018 season started when they host the Northern Illinois Huskies. The game is scheduled for 3:30 EST on Saturday, September 1 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. Fans can watch the game on the Big Ten Network. Oddsmakers list Iowa as a 10-point favorite to win.
Kirk Ferentz is about to embark on his 20th season as the head coach at Iowa. The Hawkeyes were 1-10 in his first season back in 1999. But he’s built Iowa into one of the most consistent programs in the country. Iowa has been to a bowl game in nine of the last 10 seasons, including a Rose Bowl appearance and a top-10 ranking in 2015. There’s no reason to expect Ferentz won’t put together another solid campaign in 2018.
Northern Illinois, meanwhile, has also had plenty of success under Rod Carey the past five seasons. The Huskies have gone to a bowl in four of those five seasons, making three appearances in the MAC title game along the way. Last year was a little disappointing, as NIU finished 8-5 and failed to reach the conference championship game. However, the Huskies have high hopes for 2018, even with a challenging non-conference schedule that will begin with a trip to Iowa this week.
The last time these two teams met was in 2013 when Northern Illinois pulled off a 30-27 upset in the season opener. All of the players are different on both teams from that matchup. But Iowa should still be afraid of history repeating itself if they don’t bring their best effort.
This isn’t going to be an easy win for Iowa. The Hawkeyes should prevail, but Northern Illinois is going to make it tough on them. In games against power-conference teams last year, the Huskies won at Nebraska and only loss to Boston College by three points. With a lot of starters back on both sides of the ball, this NIU team is poised to at least give the Hawkeyes a run for their money. I expect the Huskies to compete, so I’ll lean toward Northern Illinois and the points.
The thing that stands out most about the Huskies is their defense, which was a borderline top-30 defense in 2017. Obviously, most of their games were played against MAC teams. But most MAC teams are able to move the ball, so one should not be so quick to dismiss the accomplishments of the NIU defense last season. All four starters on the defensive line are back, including MAC Defensive Player of the Year Sutton Smith, so it’s not a given that the Iowa offensive line will be able to push them around.
In fact, the Iowa offensive line took some heavy losses after last season, including the early departure of center James Daniels. That unit has some experience coming back, but they’ll also have plenty to prove this year. The Hawkeyes will also be inexperienced at the running back position. Toren Young and Ivory Kelly-Martin will share the duties, although both rushed for less than 200 yards a season ago. It’s not a given that the Hawkeyes will be able to establish their running game against the NIU defense.
That could end up putting a little more pressure on quarterback Nate Stanley. The junior did a great job of avoiding turnovers last season, only throwing six interceptions. But he also took a lot of sacks and was spotty with his accuracy at times. Obviously, he was brilliant against Ohio State, but he was absolutely dreadful the following week against Wisconsin. Consistency is still a problem for him, and he’ll be challenged against an NIU secondary that could be the best in the MAC this year.
On the other side of the ball, the Huskies return quarterback Marcus Childers, who won MAC Freshman of the Year last season despite not taking over as the starter until October. Childers isn’t the most reliable passer, but he has some experience under his belt and can be a threat with his legs. Perhaps more importantly, the Huskies return all five starters on the offensive line. With that kind of continuity, the NIU offense will have a chance to get off to a fast start this season.
The Huskies will be facing an Iowa defense that lost its star power in Josey Jewell and Josh Jackson, both first-team All-Americans. The Hawkeyes are also breaking in three new linebackers, which could create problems when it comes to stopping the run. If NIU can get a little push with its veteran offensive line, they may be able to exploit Iowa’s linebackers and establish a running game that could open things up for Childers.
All things considered, I think this is a tough matchup for Iowa. The Hawkeyes should have a little more talent. But this NIU team is loaded with experienced and doesn’t have a lot of obvious weaknesses on either side of the ball. I’m expecting this to be a close game in the 4th quarter, so I’ll take Northern Illinois to at least beat the spread.
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