I wrote of the Indiana Hoosiers before the 2018-19 season began…(ahem):
“Head coach Tom Allen offers little in the way of new ideas as he enters his 2nd full season following a 5-7 year. The Hoosier offense ranked 105th in running yards in ’17. Top receiver Simmie Cobbs Jr. is gone, and many starters will be missing from a defense that has been giving-up 160+ yards rushing on average. Coaches are expected to play DB Marcelino Ball at linebacker in some packages, just trying to beef-up the front-7. The schedule is unfriendly. IU will face Virginia in a tough OOC match-up in September before facing Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, Minnesota and Michigan in 6 out of 8 games. I’m thinking a 3-9 or 4-8 season won’t look like a surprise at all.”
Well, call me a liar.
The Hoosiers are 4-2, and only a 5-point point spread ‘dog in a huge match-up with the Iowa Hawkeyes this weekend.
Who: Iowa Hawkeyes at Indiana Hoosiers
When: Saturday, October 13th, 12:00 PM EST
Where: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
Lines: Iowa (-5) at Indiana (+5) / O/U Total: (52.5)
Allen has turned some heads in the first 6 weeks of the year. The Indiana defense has been much better than anyone expected thus far, and has taken care of business in games against lesser foes.
The Hoosiers were also able to hang around with Ohio State last week in the Horseshoe. Indiana was only down 9 going into the 4th quarter before the Buckeyes pulled away late.
There appears to be a top 25 pass defense in place, a trait that will come in handy this week against a budding Nate Stanley of Iowa.
On offense, things haven’t been quite as rosy, but the unit has been good in spurts. Still, the Crimson Quarry is quite concerned:
The struggles come mainly in the running game. Indiana ranks 99th in rushing marginal efficiency, and 83rd in marginal efficiency on standard downs (defined here as “first downs, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer, and fourth-and-4 or fewer”). Morgan Ellison is back practicing with the team, but he’s still suspended indefinitely and it’s questionable when he’ll see the field. Meanwhile, Stevie Scott started out with a bang, but got bottled up against Sparty and Rutger in the first two Big Ten contests of the season.
Meanwhile, the passing game isn’t bad! Peyton Ramsey is completing a whopping 71% of passes, and the marginal passing efficiency ranks a respectable 43rd. On passing downs (defined here as “second-and-8 or more, third-and-5 or more, or fourth-and-5 or more”), Indiana ranks 50th. That’s not terrible either. However, it’s the explosiveness on passing plays where IU struggles. The passing marginal explosiveness ranks 121st out of 130 FBS teams. And on passing downs, this ranking falls to 122nd. Not good!
Spread offenses are cyclical, and Peyton Ramsey is slowly improving. Indiana will almost certainly never be a dominant rushing team under Allen so we might as well focus on other things. The Hoosiers do have a potential breakout RB who can help take some pressure off Ramsey despite average blocking. Stevie Scott was quiet last week, but had a 204 yard rushing performance earlier in the year against Virginia.
Iowa(4-1)(1-1) is accustomed to leaning on defense to win games and that is no different this year. A.J. Epenesa is a punishing defensive lineman who plays a big role in run defense, and the unit overall is top-15 caliber.
Kirk Ferentz is starting to see JR QB Nate Stanley improve on an average sophomore campaign, however. Stanley has had outstanding performances in the last 3 games, including an 11.1 YPA outing against Wisconsin 2 weeks ago (a game that the Hawkeyes would have won if not for a few self-inflicted wounds).
The press is raving about the receivers:
Nate Stanley completed 23 of 39 passes for 314 yards. He hit 6 different receivers with Toren Young being the only one to get a target without a catch. Perhaps more importantly, three different wide receivers caught 14 passes for a combined 198 yards and 2 touchdowns. But the biggest thing was the step forward we may have seen Brandon Smith and Ihmir Smith-Marsette take. Both have physical tools that Iowa has lacked on the edge over the years, but neither has had the consistency to make a significant impact.
We saw ISM flash against Iowa State a season ago, but he’s also had some drops this year and last. Brandon Smith appears to be everything you could want out of a receiver physically and has proven himself to be Iowa’s best blocking wideout, but has had his own problems coming down with catches. All that seemed to end Saturday as Smith made one of the most spectacular catches I’ve ever seen.
But for this offense to really take the next step, they will need better play from their offensive line and what has been a running back by committee. It is rare that the Hawkeyes don’t have a feature back, but that has been the case so far in 2018.
It takes a strong rushing team to beat Iowa, since the Hawkeyes’ one weakness is their own lack of a punishing, clock-controlling push up front on offense. Wisconsin ran for 200+ yards and beat Iowa, but Saturday’s visitors have trounced everyone else, including Northern Illinois and Minnesota on the road.
Indiana is a good football team that doesn’t match up well enough with Iowa (even on Homecoming weekend with a massive throng helping the defense) to warrant less than a TD spread.
Take the Hawkeyes to cover.