It will be a Big Ten vs ACC showdown this weekend as the Indiana Hoosiers host the Virginia Cavaliers. Game time is set for 7:00 EST on Saturday, September 8, at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Indiana. Fans can watch the game on the Big Ten Network.
If we look at the Week 2 odds, the Hoosiers are 7-point favorites at home. That line is up after Indiana only opened as a 5.5-point favorite.
After surprising many by reaching a bowl game last season, Virginia off to a good start in 2018 after a 42-13 win over Richmond last week. While Richmond is an FCS team, the Spiders can be pesky, something the Cavaliers have learned in recent years. However, after a sluggish start to the game, Virginia took control in the 2nd quarter and never relinquished the lead once they took it.
The Hoosiers are also off to a 1-0 start after going on the road last week and beating Florida International. Quarterback Peyton Ramsey was efficient, completing 20 of 27 passes with three touchdowns. Backup Michael Penix Jr. also found his way into the game, completing eight of 10 passes and leading tow scoring drives. However, the win came at a cost, as starting running back Cole Gest suffered a season-ending injury in the process.
These two teams also met last September with Indiana winning 34-17 behind a strong performance from Ramsey. However, Virginia has come a long way since that loss and they’ll be eager to take a second crack at beating the Hoosiers this weekend.
On paper, this looks like it should be a competitive game. If the line were closer to a field goal, I might lean toward Indiana as the home team. But I think Virginia is a little better than people are giving them credit for early in the season. Plus, the Hoosiers didn’t do enough to really impress me last week. I’ll lean toward the Cavaliers to keep this game within a touchdown and maybe steal a win on the road.
The biggest difference between Virginia this season and last season is the quarterback position. Kurt Benkert was a fine quarterback for a number of years, but he wasn’t an ideal fit for Bronco Mendenhall’s system. Junior college transfer Bryce Perkins fits what Mendenhall wants in a quarterback much better than Benkert.
Perkins is a true dual-threat quarterback, and both of his skills were on display in the opener against Richmond. To be fair, he’s not exactly a prolific passer, going 13 for 24 for 185 yards and two touchdowns against Richmond. But his ability as a runner gives the Virginia offense a dimension that the Cavs haven’t had in recent years. Both Perkins and running back Jordan Ellis ran for over 100 yards against Richmond. Obviously, things won’t come that easy against the Indiana defense. But having a mobile quarterback, as well as playmakers like Jordan Ellis and receiver Olamide Zaccheaus, make the Cavaliers a lot more dangerous on offense than when they played Indiana last season.
The Indiana defense also left a little to be desired last week against Florida International. The Hoosiers managed to force three turnovers, but they also gave up 28 points against a team without an established quarterback or a lot of proven playmakers. Even on the road, it would have been nice to see them shut the door against a rebuilding team from a smaller conference. To be fair, the Hoosiers are replacing a lot of defensive starters from last season. Of course, that also makes me think that they’ll struggle to shut down the Virginia offense the way they did last year.
Another concern I have for Indiana is in the running game. As mentioned, Gest is out for the season. Meanwhile, Morgan Ellison, who’s arguably the team’s best offensive weapon, is suspended indefinitely. I’m not going to claim that Virginia has a dominant defense. But the Cavs held Richmond to 34 rushing yards on 19 carries, so I think they’ll be fine against a team that’s reaching deep into the depth chart to find a running back.
Without a stable rushing attack, I have some questions about Ramsey. At this point, he’s still more of a game manager than someone who’s going to make a lot of big plays down the field. The Hoosiers need to run the ball and stay balanced on offense for Ramsey to have a good game. Again, the Virginia defense isn’t anything too special. But the Cavs should be a step up in competition from Florida International.
To be honest, it’s still a little too early in the season to draw too many conclusions about either team. However, I don’t think Indiana is as strong defensively as they were a year ago, while the Virginia offense is more capable of creating big plays. That leads me to believe this will be a close game. With that in mind, taking the underdog Cavaliers and the points seems like the safer pick.