Indiana Football Predictions

It took some time, but Kevin Wilson finally got the Indiana Hoosiers to a bowl game for the first time since 2007 last season. They finished 6-7 after falling to Duke 41-44 in overtime in the Pinstripe Bowl.

But this team was certainly better than its record would have indicated last season. They came close to beating four of the top teams in the Big Ten. They took Ohio State to the final play, lost to Michigan in OT after giving up a TD on the final play of regulation, only trailed Michigan State 28-26 with five minutes left, and lost to Iowa by eight points.

Now Wilson enters his sixth season at Indiana and has instilled a winning mentality. He should have plenty of talent this season with 13 starters and a whopping 57 lettermen returning. Let’s see if the Hoosiers can make back-to-back bowls for the first time since 1990-91.

Last Season
Big Ten East
Record
ATS Record
Over/Under
Points For
Points Against
5th
6-7 (2-6 Big Ten)
7-6
10-2-1
36.5
37.6
2016 Indiana Hoosiers Schedule
Date Opponent
Spread (Est.)
Win Chance
9/1 @ FIU
9/10 Ball State
9/24 Wake Forest
10/1 Michigan State
10/8 @ Ohio State
10/15 Nebraska
10/22 @ Northwestern
10/29 Maryland
11/5 @ Rutgers
11/12 Penn State
11/19 @ Michigan
11/26 Purdue
Estimated Wins: TBD
Offense

The Hoosiers were quietly one of the best offensive teams in the country last season. They put up 36.5 points and 504 total yards per game. Now they’ll have six starters back on this side of the ball, but unfortunately they’ll be replacing two key cogs from that squad.

The biggest loss is QB Nate Sudfeld, who threw for 3,573 yards with 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Replacing him is expected to be junior Richard Lagow, who went 3-5 as a starter at the JUCO level last year. Challenging him will be junior Zander Diamont and redshirt freshman Austin King.

Jordan Howard (1,213 yards, 9 TD, 6.2/carry) is the other big loss in the backfield. He was taken in the fifth round by the Chicago Bears after a great season last year. Fortunately, Davine Redding (1,012 yards, 9 TD, 4.5/carry) is back following a 1,000-yard season of his own and will be the featured runner.

Receiver is certainly a position of strength for the Hoosiers this season as they return each of their top three pass catchers from a year ago. They are junior Simmie Cobbs (60 receptions, 1,035 yards, 4 TD), senior Ricky Jones (54, 906, 5 TD) and senior Mitchell Paige (57, 684, 6 TD).

The offensive line returns three starters and 77 career starts and will be one of the most underrated in the conference once again. They do lost their best lineman in LT Jason Spriggs to the NFL as he was taken in the 2nd round by the Green Bay Packers. But fortunately third-team All-American RG Dan Feeney turned down the NFL and returns to lead this group.

Defense

Indiana took a big step back defensively last season as it allowed 37.6 points and 509 yards per game. That’s why the Hoosiers lost so many close games against top competition. They could score with those teams, but they simply could not stop them. This unit should be improved in 2016 with seven starters and each of the top five tacklers back from last year, making this perhaps Wilson’s best D yet.

The biggest concern is along the defensive line where four starters and five of the top seven tacklers up front depart. Three juniors in DT Nat Hoff, DT Robert McCray (17 tackles, 5.5 for loss) and DE Greg Gooch (12 tackles, 2 for loss) are expected to take over starting roles. Also look for sophomore DE Jacob Robinson to crack the starting lineup.

The linebacker corps should be a strength as leading tackler Marcus Oliver (112 tackles, 6.5 for loss, 2 INT), third-leading tackler TJ Simmons (73 tackles, 6 for loss) and fourth-leading tackler Tegray Scales (63 tackles, 5.5 for loss, 2 INT) all return. Expect Ohio State transfer Jayme Thompson to take the place of Will Dawkins, who transferred.

The secondary should be solid as well considering all four starters return intact, plus they add in South Carolina transfer Wesley Green. Leading the way will be junior CB Rashad Fant (52 tackles, 22 pass break-ups), sophomore CB Andre Brown (35 tackles, 4 pass break-ups), sophomore SS Jonathan Crawford (76 tackles, 4 INT) and junior FS Chase Dutra (61 tackles).

Odds (Courtesy of 5Dimes)
Regular Season Win Total
Big Ten East Odds
Big Ten Championship Odds
4-Team Playoff Odds
National Championship Odds
5.5
+6000
+12500
N/A
+400000
Season Predictions

Indiana really showed me a lot last year in its losses rather than its wins. Five of its seven losses came by a touchdown or less, which is how close this was being to a 11-2 team rather than a 6-7 one. And most of those losses came against top-notch competition.

The offense will still be solid despite the losses of Sudfeld and Howard because there is a lot of talent back at wide receiver and along the offensive line. The defense should be Wilson’s best yet with seven starters and each of the top five tacklers returning.

The schedule sets up well as the Hoosiers play FIU, Ball State and Wake Forest out of conference. Plus, they get five Big Ten home games, giving them seven home games in all. That’s why I believe the Hoosiers will be getting back to a bowl again in 2016 as I project them to go 3-0 out of conference and 6-6 overall.

2016 Projections
Big Ten East
Big Ten Record
Overall Record
Win Total Prediction
5th
3-6
6-6
Over 5.5
More College Football Predictions
Big Ten
East
Indiana
West
Conferences
Conference USA
Independents

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