The college football opening weekend includes a neutral site matchup between in-state rivals as the Indiana Hoosiers battle the Ball State Cardinals. Kickoff is set for noon EST on Saturday, August 31, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Fans can catch all of the action on CBS Sports Network.
Oddsmakers list the Hoosiers as 16.5-point favorites with an over/under of 59 points. Click here to check out all of this week’s college football betting odds.
Indiana head coach Tom Allen is hoping the third season will be the charm for him. After coaching the Hoosiers in their bowl game following the 2016 season, Allen has fallen short of taking Indiana to a bowl game in each of the past two seasons. The Hoosiers have gone 5-7 and 2-7 in Big Ten Play in back-to-back years, so it’s time for Allen to make some progress.
For what it’s worth, Indiana has won all six of their non-conference wins under Allen the past two seasons. They also face a brutal schedule playing in the Big Ten East division, making Indiana a little better than most 5-7 teams. That being said, the heat will be on Allen if he doesn’t take the Hoosiers to a bowl game this year, and that will be almost impossible to do if they don’t win all of their non-conference games, starting with Ball State.
As for the Cardinals, they are in a similar position. Mike Neu is entering his fourth season at Ball State, and he may need to take the program to a bowl game in order to keep his job. He currently has a record of 10-26 and 4-20 in MAC play, so he needs to make significant progress in 2019.
Two years ago, the Cardinals were 2-10 and winless in conference play. Neu seems to have them on the right track, going 4-8 and 3-5 in conference play in 2018. They even pushed Notre Dame to the brink, losing by only eight points in South Bend. But after three losing seasons under Neu, Ball State needs wins, and knocking off Indiana would be a great start to their season.
As in-state rivals, Indiana and Ball State aren’t yearly opponents, but they’ve met nine times since 1997 to fight over bragging rights in the state. The Hoosiers were victorious in both 2016 and 2018, winning 38-10 at home last season.
I wouldn’t necessarily bet on Ball State winning this game, but I think they have enough to keep it close. The Cardinals have a lot of experience coming back, so taking a step forward from a 4-8 campaign seems reasonable. They will also be motivated to face an in-state opponent inside an NFL stadium. To me, that translates to a close game, so I’ll lean toward Ball State to beat the spread.
The biggest reason I like Ball State to beat the spread in this game is that I think they’ll score points. The Cardinals may have to replace starting quarterback Riley Neal, but they have one of the better receiving groups in the MAC. The other piece of good news is that quarterback Drew Plitt has seen plenty of the field over the past two seasons. Despite throwing a couple more interceptions than touchdowns, Plitt threw for over 1,000 yards in 2018, so this isn’t his first rodeo. With strong receivers and all five starters on the offensive line coming back, Plitt and the Ball State offense are set up for a fast start in 2019.
Meanwhile, questions linger about the Indiana defense. The biggest concern is probably on the defensive line, so the Hoosiers can’t count on pushing around an experienced Ball State offensive line. That should help mitigate the talent disparity that usually exists between the Big Ten and the MAC.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Hoosiers are still undecided between quarterbacks Peyton Ramsey and Michael Penix Jr. Ramsey is probably a better fit for the offense because he’s the more accurate passer. But he can be inconsistent at times, so it’s possible that Penix ends up starting or both quarterbacks see time against Ball State.
Either way, the offense is likely to focus around Stevie Scott and the running game. Scott ran for over 1,100 yards as a true freshman last year, so the Hoosiers will ride him if they can. But with only two starters on the offensive line returning, that’s not a given. The Cardinals are also returning nine starters on defense. While that group had its problems last season, the year of experience should serve them well, especially since they faced Indiana last season.
Despite Indiana earning a comfortable 28-point win in this matchup last year, I’m sensing a more competitive game this time around. I’m not sure how much Indiana has improved since then, but with most of their starters back on both sides of the ball, I think the Cardinals are in a better place. Indiana should win the game, but I like Ball State to beat the spread.