Conference play gets started Friday night for a couple of Big Ten teams as the Illinois Fighting Illini host the no. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions. Kickoff is set for 9:00 EST on Friday, September 21, at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois. Fans can watch the game on FS1.
Oddsmakers list the Nittany Lions as 28-point favorites on the road. Be sure to check out a full list of this week’s college football odds.
Penn State got off to a rocky start this season, needing overtime to avoid an upset against Appalachian State in their season opener. But the Nittany Lions have kicked it into gear since then with back-to-back blowouts of Pittsburgh and Kent State. Senior quarterback Trace McSorley appears to have the offense humming after scoring 51 and 63 points the last two weeks, respectively. Of course, the Nittany Lions need to make sure they avoid looking ahead to next week’s showdown with Ohio State and not overlook Illinois.
The Illini got their season started with a pair of wins over Kent State and Western Illinois, showing some promise early in the year. Illinois looked poised to reach 3-0 last week but failed to hold a 19-7 lead against South Florida. The Fighting Illini were outscored 18-0 in the 4th quarter and out-gained by over 200 yards in a disappointing 25-19 home loss. Life doesn’t get much easier to Lovie Smith’s team as they move into Big Ten play.
This is a series that has been dominated by Penn State, who has won 18 of the 23 all-time meetings between these two schools. Of course, both rosters are completely different from the last time they met in 2015. The Nittany Lions won that game 39-0 and would certainly welcome a repeat of that performance on Friday night.
It’s tough to swallow this many points when the favorite is on the road inside the conference, especially in primetime. However, after all the points the Nittany Lions have put up this season, I’ll take my chances that they’ll cover. There is a sizable gap in talent between these two teams, and as long as Penn State doesn’t lose focus with Ohio State on the horizon, I expect them to cover the four-touchdown spread.
As mentioned, McSorley has the Penn State offense clicking. Oddly enough, he hasn’t been all that accurate with the football, completing less than 52% of his passes through three games. But I don’t expect that trend to continue. McSorley completed passes at a 66% clip last season, so he’s capable of playing better than he’s shown early in the season. The Pitt game was also played in a rainstorm, so we can forgive a few of his incomplete passes from that game.
Perhaps more importantly, the Nittany Lions have had little trouble running the ball this season. Miles Sanders has proven to be a viable replacement for Saquon Barkley, as he’s averaging six yards per carry this season. McSorley has also done a fair amount of running. He actually has more touchdowns rushing (six) than he does passing (five), turning into a true dual-threat quarterback, which makes him tougher to defend.
On the other side of the ball, the Penn State defense has gotten their act together the past couple of weeks after a rough opener. The Nittany Lions gave up just six points and forced three turnovers against a decent Pitt team a couple weeks ago. They also limited Kent State’s up-tempo offense to just 221 yards a week ago. That tells me the Penn State defense is rounding into form after needing to replace some key players from last year’s team.
I also have some questions about the Illinois offense, who will likely be starting backup quarterback M.J. Rivers II with starter AJ Bush picking up a hamstring injury a couple week ago. The Fighting Illini managed to move the ball against Kent State and Western Illinois but had less success last week against South Florida. Illinois managed just one touchdown while settling for four field goals against USF. They were also held to just three points in the second half.
To be fair, Rivers played well at times against USF. The Illini have also had success running the ball this season. However, Illinois is lacking in bonafide playmakers at the receiver position. They struggled to sustain drives against South Florida, which is why they had to keep settling for field goals. I imagine they’ll find the Penn State defense even more difficult to attack than the South Florida defense. If Illinois falls behind early and has to throw the ball, they could be in trouble.
Being at home will help Illinois keep this game competitive for at least a quarter or two. But the boost they get from the crowd should wear off eventually, at which point they won’t have the horses to keep up with Penn State. The Nittany Lions are averaging 53 points per game this season, and that’s without playing an FCS team. I expect them to approach that mark against Illinois, enabling them to easily cover the 28-point spread.