The North Carolina Tar Heels travel to face the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday, September 10th in an ACC vs. Big Ten battle. The Tar Heels rolled the Fighting Illini by a final of 48-14 as 8-point home favorites last season.
North Carolina (0-1) blew a 10-point lead in the second half to Georgia last week and lost by a final of 24-33. They allowed the game’s final 19 points as the defense simply could not slow down Nick Chubb and company.
Illinois (1-0) got off to a nice start for first-year head coach Lovie Smith. The Fighting Illini made easy work of FCS opponent Murray State in a 52-3 victory as 33-point favorites.
Kickoff inside Memorial Stadium in Champaign is scheduled for 7:30 EST Saturday night with Big Ten Network providing the television coverage. If you are looking to bet this game, you’ll be working with a line of North Carolina -7.5 over Illinois and a total set of 58 points.
For starters, the Fighting Illini are going to want revenge from their 14-48 loss at North Carolina last season. Now they get the Tar Heels at home this time around, and it’s going to be a great atmosphere as fans in Champaign are excited after their 52-3 victory over Murray State last season.
Illinois was better than its 5-7 record would indicate last season. It went through turmoil at the head coach position, but still nearly made a bowl game. Also, five of the seven losses came by 11 points or less, so that game against UNC was one of only two in which the Illini weren’t competitive last year.
The Fighting Illini have new life under former NFL head coach Lovie Smith, who was with the Bears for nine years and the Buccaneers for two. He inherited some nice talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball where seven starters returned.
The key was bringing back one of the most underrated QB’s in the country in Wes Lunt, the former Oklahoma State transfer. This offense has really clicked with him at QB. Lunt threw for 2,761 yards and 14 touchdowns against six interceptions last year. He welcomed backed two of his top three receivers this year, and leading rusher Ke’Shawn Vaughn (723 yards, 6 TD).
The offense really looked good against Murray State in the 52-3 win. The Fighting Illini racked up 515 total yards, including 226 passing and three touchdowns from Lunt. The defense was equally impressive under new defensive coordinator Hardy Nickerson, a five-time Pro Bowler. The Illini held Murray State to just 165 total yards while forcing three turnovers.
I believe UNC is one of the most overrated teams in the country after going 11-3 last year. It lost its most important player in QB Marquise Williams, and the defense is still terrible, just as it has been ever since Larry Fedora took over as head coach.
That was evident in the 24-33 loss to Georgia. UNC gave up 474 total yards to the Bulldogs and managed only 315 yards on offense, getting outgained by 159 yards for the game. New QB Mitch Trubisky struggled, completing just 24-of-40 passes for 156 yards with zero touchdowns.
But the real problem was stopping the run as the Tar Heels gave up 289 yards and 5.6 per carry to the Bulldogs. They will get shredded again on the ground by a Fighting Illini team that rushed for 287 yards and 7.2 per carry against Murray State. It’s also worth noting the Illini held the Racers to -10 rushing yards on 26 carries, which is impressive against any opponent.
Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ILLINOIS) – in non-conference games, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 140-79 (63.9%) ATS since 1992.
Larry Fedora is 0-7 ATS in September road games as the coach of North Carolina.
Larry Fedora is 0-7 ATS in September road games as the coach of North Carolina. Fedora is also 2-10 ATS in road games in the first half of the season as the coach of the Tar Heels. UNC is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games.