The Illinois Fighting Illini will try to get their 2019 season started off on a winning note when they play host to the Akron Zips opening weekend. Kickoff is set for noon EST on Saturday, August 31, at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois. Fans can watch the game on the Big Ten Network.
According to our Week 1 college football odds, Illinois is favored by 16.5 points at home. The over/under for the game is set at 58 points.
Lovie Smith will begin his fourth season as the head coach at Illinois with his seat feeling a little warm. In three seasons, the Fighting Illini are just 9-27 and 4-23 in Big Ten play. The school has been patient with him and even gave him a two-year extension after last season. But that vote of confidence will disappear quickly if Illinois begins the season by losing to a MAC team at home.
In fairness, there was a slight improvement in 2018. After a 2-10 season in 2017 that included a 0-9 conference record, Illinois doubled their win total in 2018, going 4-8 and 2-7 in Big Ten play. However, most of their losses were in lopsided fashion, indicating that there’s still a big gap between the Fighting Illini and the rest of the Big Ten.
Meanwhile, Akron is beginning a new era after firing head coach Terry Bowden after the 2018 season. In seven seasons with the Zips, Bowden was 35-52 and only led Akron to two bowl games. In 2017, Akron actually played in the MAC Championship Game. But after following it up with a 4-8 campaign last year, Bowden was out of a job.
Akron has replaced him with Tom Arth, who has prior experience as a head coach but never at the FBS level. He had a successful four-year run with John Carroll, a Division III program. Arth then spent the last two seasons at Chattanooga, an FCS program, helping improve them from 3-8 in 2017 to 6-5 in 2018. Akron is hopeful he can begin a similar turnaround with the Zips starting in 2019.
This will be only the second-ever meeting between Akron and Illinois. The first game between the schools came in 1996. Illinois won that game easily 38-7.
I’ll be honest, picking Illinois to cover feels a little like a sucker’s bet. But as bad as the Illini has been in the Big Ten in recent years, that’s how bad Akron will be in the MAC this season. Smith, to his credit, has recruited well and been forced to play a lot of young players the past two seasons. Those players have grown up a little and are getting tired of losing. I think they’ll take advantage of the chance to play a MAC team in the opener. I’ll lean toward Illinois to release some frustration against Akron and cover the spread.
The best thing to happen to Illinois this offseason may have been getting quarterback Brandon Peters, a transfer fro Michigan. Peters saw limited action at Michigan, but he brings more maturity and leadership than the other quarterbacks on the roster. He also had the talent of a quarterback that Michigan recruited out of high school, so he should be able to handle himself against a MAC defense.
Even if Peters is a little rusty from his years of riding the bench at Michigan, the running game figures to be the strength of the Illinois offense this year. Running back Reggie Corbin returns after rushing for over 1,000 yards last season, as do four starters on the offensive line. The Fighting Illini also have Alabama transfer Richie Pettibon on the offensive line, so that unit should be much-improved from last season.
Illinois should also benefit this week from having to face an Akron defense that’s at the start of a massive rebuild. The Zips return just three starters from last season and lost six of their top eight tacklers. If the Illinois offensive line can gel right away, they’ll have a chance to dominate the Zips at the line of scrimmage, making life a lot easier for both Peters and Corbin and setting the Illinois offense up for a big day.
To be fair, the Illinois defense has massive questions to answer after they were one of the worst units in the country last season. But Smith has taken over the play-calling duties, which should help that unit. Despite being atrocious at times last season, the Illini has a lot of experience coming back. They’ve also added USC transfer Oluwole Betiku, who should make an immediate impact on the defensive line.
Offensively, Akron has a nice quarterback in Kato Nelson, but that’s about it. The offensive line was dreadful in 2018, as the Zips averaged less than three yards per carry on the ground. Also, Nelson was under so much pressure that he only completed 52% of his passes. Given Illinois’ strength on the defensive line, those problems are likely to carry over into the 2019 season opener and make it difficult for the Zips to get going offensively.
Ultimately, I expect Illinois to dominate Akron at the line of scrimmage the way a Big Ten team should dominate a MAC team. Over the course of four quarters, that should be enough for Illinois to build a comfortable lead and cover the spread.