The Houston Cougars will get the conference portion of their schedule underway this week as they host the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes. Game time is set for 8:00 EST on Thursday, October 4, at TDECU Stadium in Houston. The game can be seen nationally on ESPN.
Oddsmakers are listing the Cougars as 18-point favorites at home. Click here to see a full list of this week’s college football betting odds.
Houston’s non-conference schedule has included two power conference teams, but the Cougars have come out of it 3-1. They were no doubt disappointed to lose a shootout against Texas Tech 63-49 a few weeks ago. However, the Cougars also blew out Arizona 45-18 earlier in the year, a result that should give them confidence that they can compete among the best in the American Athletic Conference. By the looks of their competitors early in the season, Houston may very well be the top team in the AAC West division, especially with Memphis already 0-2 in conference play.
Tulsa, meanwhile, has endured a rough September. At 1-3, the Golden Hurricanes may already be having flashbacks of last year’s 2-10 campaign. However, Tulsa has at least been competitive in their losses this year. They were within a touchdown of Texas, lost by only nine points to Arkansas State, and actually out-gained Temple by over 100 yards last time out despite a two-touchdown loss. Unfortunately for Tulsa, the schedule doesn’t exactly let up, so the Golden Hurricanes will have to pull off a surprise win or two if they hope to salvage their season and stay in contention for a bowl.
A surprise win is exactly what Tulsa pulled off against Houston last year, beating the Cougars 45-17. However, Houston has won eight of the last 12 games in this rivalry overall, so the Cougars have had Tulsa’s number more times than not in recent years.
It was tempting to lean toward Tulsa and the points in this rivalry game, but this game feels like too much of a mismatch. I don’t see 18 points as being an unreasonable spread, especially with how the Houston offense can put points on the board. Even if the game is close throughout, I can see the Cougars adding a score or two late in order to cover.
The one concern I have about Houston at this point in their season is their defense. After all, they gave up 63 points just a few weeks ago to Texas Tech. The Cougars were also a little lackluster early in the season against Rice. For a team with a potential top-5 pick in Ed Oliver on the defensive line, the Cougars haven’t been particularly effective at putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks or preventing chunk plays in the passing game.
That being said, I can forgive the Texas Tech game because of how explosive the Red Raiders have been offensively this year. If you take away that game, the Cougars are giving up less than 20 points per game. Even with a rather weak schedule, that’s an acceptable number considering how dynamic the Houston offense can be at times.
Perhaps more importantly, I’m not sure the Tulsa offense has the quality to take full advantage of a porous Houston defense. The Golden Hurricanes are averaging just 19 points per game against FBS teams this season. They are relying primarily on a rushing attack that’s averaging just four yards per carry. Outside of Texas, Houston’s defense may have the most talent that Tulsa has seen this year, especially with Oliver being such a force at the line of scrimmage. I’m not sure I see the Tulsa rushing attack having sustained success this week.
Meanwhile, quarterback Luke Skipper just isn’t getting it done as a passer. He’s been an asset in the running game, but he’s not doing nearly enough as a passer. He’s yet to reach 200 yards passing in any game this season, not even against FCS team Central Arkansas. Skipper also has more interceptions than touchdowns, which is an obvious red flag. When the Cougars have given up points this season, they’ve usually come through the air. Unfortunately for Tulsa, they don’t have the kind of passing attack that can exploit that.
Finally, there’s the matter of the Golden Hurricanes stopping Houston’s vaunted offense. The Cougars are second nationally in points per game with 52. They are also averaging 355 passing yards per game, which is fifth best nationally. Quarterback D’Eriq King has been a one-man wrecking crew, tossing 15 touchdown passes with just one interception. On top of that, he has five rushing touchdowns while the Cougars as a team are gaining more than six yards per carry. If the likes of Arizona and Texas Tech couldn’t stop Houston’s offense, Tulsa doesn’t have much of a chance.
As mentioned, this game has mismatch written all over it. Tulsa is likely to struggle to stop Houston’s offense, and they don’t have the offense to take advantage of any weaknesses in the Houston defense. Even knowing this is a rivalry game that Tulsa won last year, I can see things getting out of hand, with the Cougars covering the 18-point spread with ease.