The no. 21 South Florida Bulls will put their undefeated record on the line this week when they visit the Houston Cougars. Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST on Saturday, October 27, at TDECU Stadium in Houston. Fans can watch the game on either ABC or ESPN2.
According to this week’s college football betting odds, the Cougars are 7.5-point favorites at home. The over/under for the game is set at 72.5 points.
The Bulls have had some close calls this year, but they remain a perfect 7-0 on the season. Four of their last five wins have come by eight points or less, including last week’s 38-30 win over a 1-6 UConn team. The week before that, USF needed 15 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to beat a 1-win Tulsa team by a single point.
Despite some underwhelming wins, the Bulls are undefeated and 3-0 on conference play. The catch is that both Temple and Central Florida are also undefeated teams in the American Athletic Conference East division, so they have a lot of work left to do in order to punch their ticket to the conference title game. South Florida’s most difficult games of the season are all ahead of them, starting with their road trip to Houston this week.
The Cougars are also undefeated in conference play, although they appear to have a little easier road to the AAC Championship Game in the West division. Houston could potentially lose one or even two conference games and still reach the conference title game. Of course, the longer they stay undefeated in AAC play, the better off they’ll be.
Houston is also 6-1 overall and riding a four-game winning streak. It’s fair to question the level of competition the Cougars have faced while achieving that record. But they do have a win over Arizona and their only loss came on the road against Texas Tech, who’s in the midst of a great season in the Big 12.
It’s worth mentioning that South Florida was also undefeated when they played Houston last season but allowed their lead to slip away. Houston quarterback D’Eriq King scrambled for the game-winning touchdown with 11 seconds left, cementing his spot as the team’s starting quarterback and spoiling USF’s season.
South Florida is obviously feeling the pressure of being undefeated and is working their way to a loss. The only question for me is whether Houston can cover a spread that’s over a touchdown. I’ll admit this is a risky pick, but the Bulls are one of the least impressive 7-0 teams in recent memory. I can see them falling and falling hard this week. I’ll swallow the points and lean toward the Cougars to cover.
There’s been no team that has been able to slow down King and the Houston offense this season, and none have even come close. The Cougars have scored no fewer than 41 points in any game this season, even when the dual-threat King hasn’t made a huge impact with his legs. If Arizona and Texas Tech, a pair of power conference teams with decent defensive talent, couldn’t contain the Houston offense, I don’t give South Florida much of a chance.
Even with a defensive mastermind like Charlie Strong as the head coach, USF has been underwhelming defensively this year. The Bulls are conceding 32 points per game over their last three games. Considering those games have come against UMass, Tulsa, and UConn, those are concerning performances from the South Florida defense. I’m not sure I see the Bulls being able to slow down the Houston offense once King and company get rolling.
On the other side of the ball, I’m beginning to sour on the USF offense. There’s nothing wrong with the running game, but quarterback Blake Barnett has seen his performance plateau over the last few weeks. Over the last four games, he’s thrown just three touchdown passes compared to four interceptions. That inconsistency has coincided with the entire USF offense going through dry spells and failing to pull away from teams that they should have been able to beat by a comfortable margin.
That being said, the Houston defense isn’t going to be confused with one of the better ones in the country. There’s also a chance the Cougars will be without star defensive tackle Ed Oliver this week. However, if you take away last week’s game against Navy’s triple-option and their loss to Texas Tech, the Houston defense has been surprisingly solid this year, holding most of their opponents under 30 points.
If the Cougars can find a way to hold South Florida under 30 points, I like their chances of covering the spread. Remember, Houston’s offense is a virtual lock to score at least 40 points. I haven’t seen enough from Barnett and the USF offense in the last few weeks to make think the Bulls can keep up in a shootout for four quarters. Barnett’s recent issues are just enough to make me think Houston will cover the 7.5-point spread.