Sometimes, it takes more than one game to show that an upstart is really an upstart.
Hawaii was not expected to challenge for the Mountain West title this season. The Rainbow Warriors still might not contend in the MWC. They weren’t supposed to be undefeated after 2 games. And they still might finish with a losing record. But based on results so far? Let’s just say the pundits (including myself) were a little too pessimistic. As for CFB odds-makers? We’ll get to Hawaii’s ridiculous preseason betting line in just a minute.
The Pacific island university won its first game in “Week Zero” over fellow MWC school Colorado State. No big deal. But then came the 2nd game in Week 1, and a breathtaking performance from quarterback Cole McDonald – arguably against a much stronger opponent in the Navy Midshipmen.
Week 2 presents a shining opportunity for Hawaii to go 3-0. The Rice Owls are 1-1, but their only win was a squeaker over a relatively minor program. In Week 2, the team fell to Houston at home.
Vegas has apparently been won over by Hawaii already, judging by the odds and the point spread. But are the Rainbow Warriors a good bet to cover an extremely steep point spread?
Who: Rice Owls at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
When: Sunday, September 9th, 12 AM
Where: Aloha Stadium, Halawa, HI
Lines: Rice (+17 1/2) at Hawaii (-17 1/2) / O/U Total: (69)
Let’s do a little before and after comparison. Here was my capsule preview of Hawaii before the 2018-19 college football season began:
Hawaii struggles to recruit top-flight athletes and it shows.
Following long-term entertainment value under June Jones and a few other novel coaches passing through, the Rainbow Warriors (3 ½ total-wins line) have sank into mediocrity.
For instance, the offense was ranked 63rd and 60th in the FBS in pass and rush yards respectively in 2017. But as John McKay would put it, the Warriors made up for it by playing much worse on defense.
Hawaii’s consensus win-total line was holding at (3 1/2) at the time I said that. They’re more than halfway there already. A peak at the post-Navy win hype from Ian Boyd of SB Nation:
Most years, there’s at least one Group of 5 school that has a blistering and fun offense, puts up tons of points, and is just a delight to watch in general. Think in the mold of UCF in 2017 or Boise State pretty much any other year. The runaway favorite to fill that role in 2018 is Hawaii, one of the most watchable teams in the country.
The Bows started the year with a 43-34 win at Colorado State and a 59-41 win at home against Navy. Sophomore QB Cole McDonald, who got the job after Dru Brown transferred to Oklahoma State, threw for nine touchdowns, no interceptions, and 846 yards in those games to claim SEPTEMBER HEISMAN honors.
The Warriors were a combined 30.5-point underdog in those two fun wins. They did things like throw 34-yard touchdown passes on fourth down…and mix in some new wrinkles we haven’t seen out of their run-and-shoot offense.
“Heisman” anything might be a little bit of a stretch. But McDonald has earned the right to receive heated praise. Many poor teams have tried the Run & Shoot or another type of wide-open offense to help turn things around, with little success. But when you can throw 6 touchdown passes and score almost 60 points to whip a disciplined and tough American Athletic Conference unit like Navy, your offense is a force to be reckoned with.
As for the Rainbow Warrior defense? It could still use a little work. But the D is playing just well enough to accommodate the offensive firepower and keep Hawaii in the lead.
Rice played an excellent game against Houston in the Owls’ 2nd contest of the year. It just didn’t last 60 minutes…at least not for the hosts.
The Owls took a 24-17 lead into the halftime break, led by an efficient passing performance from Shawn Stankavage and running back Emmanuel Esukpa, who finished the game with 81 yards on 17 carries.
Houston ran away in the 4th quarter following an almost-inevitable comeback. But consider that C-USA schools such as Rice do not have the physicality or depth of the AAC.
Hawaii is not as physical as Houston. The Warriors might wear the Owls down, but they’ll have to do it with fast-paced offense and making the visitors run laterally. They can’t simply out-muscle Rice at the LOS the way the Cougars were able to in the final 15:00 last weekend.
Success is difficult to handle for an upstart full of fresh faces and youthful exuberance. Hawaii must go through a process that Navy painfully did a few seasons ago – learning how to play as a favorite. Adversity will come. Nerves and pressure like the squad hasn’t felt before could help keep their opponents in this contest.
Rice is a little under-valued by bookies and gamblers alike. The point spread is simply too wide, and the Owls have an excellent shot at keeping the result between 2 touchdowns.
I’m also liking the under (69) as the Vegas point total is a tad bit inflated thanks to the Hawaii-Navy score.