For years, I have complained that if Paul Johnson leaves Georgia Tech and is replaced by a standard Spread-O style head coach, the Ramblin’ Wreck would turn into Vanderbilt in short order. That day has now come – ex-Temple skipper Geoff Collins has arrived at the Flats promising to woo 5-star recruits with potential NFL placement. Annnnnnd all-night calculus study sessions.
Good luck, Geoff. But heck, even if it was Vanderbilt – and not the GT Yellow Jackets – visiting Death Valley on the final Thursday of October, we’d still find a reason to watch.
Clemson is #1 in the national polls after whipping Notre Dame and Alabama from pillar to post in 8 quarters of the 2018-19 College Football Playoff, and the throw-and-catch connection of Trevor Lawrence to Justyn Ross remains as fascinating as any in the sport.
That’s in spite – or potentially because of – the pair’s tender teenage years.
Dabo Swinney’s Tigers are a whopping 5-touchdown favorite to beat new-look Georgia Tech, and a quick glance at the O/U shows what a low number of points bookmakers think the Jackets have in them.
Who: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Clemson Tigers
When: Thursday, August 29th, 8 PM EST
Where: Death Valley, Clemson, SC
Lines: GT (+35.5) at Clemson (-35.5) / O/U Total: (59)
Who in the ACC can battle Clemson for 4 frames in 2019? The defending national champs are almost-prohibitive favorites to win the Atlantic Coast Conference again, taking wagers at (-350) for much of the summer.
I’m not so fond of that gamble. The gridiron has a way of balancing things out. Tua Tagovailoa looked like a perfect QB machine for much of 2017 and 2018 before defenses (like Clemson) figured out how to defend his dual-threat. No offense is unstoppable forever and in every circumstance.
Opposing coaches won’t “figure out” Lawrence and Ross though. That sort of talk is ridiculous, just like when lazy NFL fans dismiss the 11-on-11 running game as something DCs will “figure out” given enough time. As if anyone would ever “figure out” that 11 isn’t a larger number than 10.
Don’t forget Travis Etienne. The 5’10” junior RB was explosive almost every time he touched the ball in 2018-19, with an 8.1-yard average and 24 rushing touchdowns. Sophomore Lyn-J Dixon is a more-than-capable backup and 3rd-down option in the offensive backfield.
With an offensive line led by 6’4” 330 lb. senior John Simpson, a top prospect for the 2020 NFL Draft, it’s safe to say the Tigers will be able to gallop for 300 and 400 yards at a time against lesser foes without asking Trevor Lawrence to break much of a sweat.
Those “Power Rangers” on the Clemson D-line are mostly gone. There are no likely All-American replacements for Austin Bryant and Christian Wilkins. Instead, Swinney will go with a less-experienced rotation of role players up front in ’19. But even if opposing QBs see clearly to the sideline and to the pylons, there might be an extremely small window of time to throw the ball and not fall prey to a pick. Clemson may boast the most talented crop of defensive backs in the country, led by physical junior Isaiah Simmons and redshirt senior Tanner Muse.
Long-time kicker Greg Huegel is gone after 4 seasons, making a “garbage time” 36+ point advantage for Clemson less of a certainty against a GT squad that will at least have a brand-new shine on its head coach and playbook.
Georgia Tech will probably complete a few passes early, giving ESPN announcers a chance to say “well, there’s a change” and so on. Clemson’s relatively-weaker push at the point of attack will give Collins’ more-or-less ordinary NCAA offense a chance to breathe and compete a little.
But other than that, GT’s attack won’t have much lasting power in the 2nd half, while a Yellow Jacket defense led by its safeties – Tariq Carpenter and Juanyeh Thomas – won’t be able to hang-in after a 2-3 quarters of Etienne on the run and Lawrence passing on the move.
How do the Tigers like to play in garbage time, with a 4-6 touchdown lead?
There are recent trends you can point to when handicapping Clemson – for instance the squads being almost unbeatable in Death Valley. But the Tigers’ seemingly conservative bent with a big lead is not among them, simply because the team was governed much more strictly on offense with the previous QB Kelly Bryant at the helm.
With a veteran starting signal-caller the Tigers tended not to cover the spread against underdogs, such as Furman or Georgia Southern. But when Trevor Lawrence began to take 1st-team reps, Swinney decided to keep the offense running pedal-to-medal when it sensed weakness.
Clemson ran up big final scores and covered easily against Wake Forest, Louisville and even Florida State with Lawrence flinging passes, and I expect the same well-oiled machine to show up against GT.
Take the Tigers to cover (-35.5) points at home.