Georgia State at Arkansas State: Thursday Night CFB Odds and Prediction

Arkansas State doesn’t get blown out by a fellow mid-major too often. How will the Red Wolves react?

According to FBS betting websites, pretty well.

The Sun Belt powerhouse – currently sitting at a somber 3 wins and 3 losses – lost to SMU by 20+ points last season but whipped Georgia Southern 10 days later. The 2016 squad lost 3 OOC games to FBS opponents before getting upset by Central Arkansas, but reeled-off an impressive winning streak and wound up destroying UCF in a bowl game.

The struggling Georgia State Panthers could represent a “get well” outing for Ark State, but weaknesses in a normally-stout Red Wolf front-7 could give some bettors pause on the idea of the hosts easily covering 2 touchdowns.

Who: Georgia State Panthers at Arkansas Red Wolves

When: Thursday, October 18th, 7:30 PM EST

Where: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR

Lines: GSU (+14) at Ark St (-14) / O/U Total: None

Looking for Betting Value in Arkansas State at Georgia State

After a 3-1 start, Blake Anderson’s Red Wolves have dropped 2 straight games, including a 35-9 beat-down last week at the hands of Appalachian State, their worst loss against a mid-major team since a 2015 37-7 loss at Toledo.

Arkansas State had won 21 of their prior 24 against Sun Belt opponents before the skid. USA Today coldly suggests that the fan base is growing restless already:

In a league where teams rise and fall quickly, nobody in the Sun Belt has come close to matching the Red Wolves’ level of consistency. Until this year. After going 21-3 against league opponents the past three years under Blake Anderson, they’re now 0-2 in the Sun Belt and far, far behind Appalachian State, which just won 35-9 in Jonesboro. Arkansas State fans got tired of losing coaches quickly (Gus Malzahn, Hugh Freeze, Bryan Harsin) so it locked up Anderson, but discontent will spread quickly if he can’t turn it around.

The Red Wolves gave up 246 yards on the ground against the Mountaineers at a clip of 6.5 ypc. Rush defense has been their Achilles Heel all year with the defense allowing 244.7 yards per game on the ground, 125th in the FBS (only 5 teams are worse).

At least the Red Wolves rank 23rd in the nation in passing yards per game at 283.3. Right up until he threw 3 interceptions against Appalachian State, senior quarterback Justice Hansen appeared to have great control of the offense. His stat line before the loss included 4 touchdowns with 0 interceptions in the previous trio of outings.

Arkansas State need Hansen to get back on track this week, since the defense apparently can’t stop anyone from running all over the yard.

Handicapping GSU: Can the Panthers Really be This Bad?

Georgia State has looked hapless of late, dropping 4 of their last 5 games. The biggest problem for the Panthers is simply that there may not be one thing that couldn’t get a lot better. There’s a lack of identity in the program.

Shawn Elliott’s team ranks 118th in scoring (81st in passing and 94th in rushing) and 107th in defensive points allowed. The Panthers simply need more from the quarterback position – junior Dan Ellington has thrown only 5 touchdowns in 6 starts. That’s not going to cut it in modern college football.

The positive news for Georgia State is that of their youth. Three Panther underclassman recorded interceptions in the past 2 games, and the team could be growing an exciting squad in the defensive backfield. The Panthers also are not winless, but that’s about it for good news for the defense from Atlanta:

The last close game Georgia State played in was its season opening 24-20 win over Kennesaw State. The average point differential of the Panthers’ last five games is 27.8. Their lone win over that stretch was a 46-14 domination over ULM the week before facing Troy, but that same ULM team gave up 70 points to Ole Miss last week. ULM’s two wins came in 34-31 and 21-20 games over FCS opponent Southeastern and Southern Miss respectively. The ULM defense allows 41.7 points per game, so the Georgia State offense hasn’t performed well over a strong FBS defense yet this season.

The offense did its job, however, and set several schools records that game, such as most rushing yards (308) and longest run from scrimmage (82-yard touchdown by Seth Paige). Elliott said in the ULM postgame press conference that a fast score, a defensive stop and another fast score changes a team’s mindset. The Panthers were on the good end of a quick start that game, and they were on the bad side of it against Troy. Georgia State ranks 105th in the country in scoring defense by allowing 34.2 points per contest. They’ve also proven to be much better at slowing teams down in the second half. Three underclassmen, Victor Heyward, Chris Bacon and Tyler Gore, intercepted passes in the last two games.

This is really a matchup of 2 programs moving in the wrong direction. But I’m liking GSU’s potential to run the rock, even on the road, against a weakened Red Wolf defense.

My Pick on the Point Spread

Take the Panthers to cover and consider an “under” bet if the line is as healthy as NCAA totals often are.

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