When Georgia Southern is itself, the team wins. When GaSo is more “Gas Shortage” than “Georgia Power Company,” feeble attempts to look like an ordinary college football team just don’t work out well.
Georgia Southern had a disaster of a 2017 campaign after deciding to abandon their traditional triple-option offense. Or actually, a not-so-traditional triple-option offense. I normally shudder at any description of an offense as “triple option,” because it describes a play, not a playbook. Yet it’s hard to describe the newfangled “option” offense in Statesboro, since it’s really just a continuation of Urban Meyer’s concepts with some Paul Johnson thrown in.
Most college teams can execute an option play. But when the identity of a successful program has been built around one basic thing for 50 years, why change it now? GaSo keeps learning that lesson the hard way.
Meanwhile, college football line-makers are more impressed with a conference rival. The Arkansas State Red Wolves are visiting as field goal favorites thanks to yet another outstanding start – at least solid for a Sun Belt team with an arduous OOC schedule.
Who: Arkansas State Red Wolves at Georgia Southern Eagles
When: Saturday, September 29th, 6 PM EST
Where: Paulson Stadium, Statesboro, GA
Lines: Ark St (-3) at GaSo (+3) / O/U Total: (54)
So the “rootin’ tootin’ Oklahoma gator-bait” option play, as Woody Paige would call it, is a thing again in Statesboro, and the Eagles have made a marked improvement offensively. The team enters this weekend (2-1) with their only loss coming to Clemson. QB Shai Werts is turning into a fine play-action QB and makes the most of limited opportunities while the offense becomes a dynamo on the ground once again.
Arkansas State strolls into conference play this week as the odds-on favorite to win what is a very weak Sun Belt West division. The Red Wolves are off to a (3-1) start with their only loss coming at the hands of Alabama in Tuscaloosa. They are coming off of a 27-20 win at home against UNLV, in a game that the Red Wolves were (+3) in the turnover battle. While they have taken care of business, there is cause for concern as the offense has yet to hit its stride, and the team has flirted with “can’t run, can’t stop the run” in more than just the ‘Bama game.
Nevertheless, bloggers like Underdog Dynasty think the Red Wolves might have their meat supply all sown up:
Before you ready those angry tweets and emails, we freely admits it’s way too early to make a concrete call for the title game. But through four weeks, the Red Wolves already stand head and shoulders above the rest of the Sun Belt West division.
Arkansas State is 3-1 overall, and of the other four teams in the west, three have a single win, and 2-2 ULM is far from a lock to keep pace with as they are now 0-1 in conference play after losing to Troy at home and must visit stAte on the road in November. The Warhawks have lost eight straight to the Red Wolves and haven’t won in Jonesboro since 2001.
There’s still time for many of these teams to turn it around, but with a two-game advantage heading into conference play, the West will be the Red Wolves’ to lose.
The difference in pace of play between these teams could not be much more drastic. Arkansas State likes to operate at a very high tempo, and tries to leverage their talent advantage by creating more opportunities in the game. Georgia Southern will be looking to “take the air out of the ball” and limit possessions. GaSo has had the slowest tempo in the nation so far this season, exposing the squad’s intention to be a ball-control unit.
Arkansas State will need to focus on cleaning up mistakes as the Red Wolves are 129th in the country in penalties per-game. That’s a flaw that could prove costly in what is expected to be a tightly-contested road game against a very disciplined and hungry Georgia Southern team.
The good news for the visitors, of course, is that they’re playing with a favorites’ confidence. Why wouldn’t they? Arkansas State appears to have the more talented and well-balanced team. Justice Hansen is the Sun Belt’s reigning Offensive Player of the Year, and he’ll handle the ball on every play for the Red Wolves. GaSo doesn’t have a play-maker to match just yet.
I’m liking Arkansas State ATS and also the over (54). Whenever handicappers in Vegas or casual fans hear “triple option,” they think of Army’s slow trudge against Oklahoma last weekend. But GaSo’s offense is wide open and sophisticated – it just uses more pitches, mysterious hand-offs and QB keepers than throws.
The Red Wolves will likely win a high-scoring contest in Statesboro.