The experts say that college teams try to win every game every year, while NFL teams plan for the long-term. That’s more or less true, but sometimes a college program can make its own big-picture decisions.
Wyoming is letting Tyler Vander Waal sink or swim as a freshman QB. There hasn’t been a whole lot of Michael Phelps-level swimming so far, but the Cowboys know they have to move on from Josh Allen and are trying to develop another long-term “franchise” quarterback.
Meanwhile, Fresno State is just fine at QB and everywhere else…but the 4-1 Bulldogs lost unexpectedly to Minnesota in Week 2. Still, the MWC contenders have whipped Toledo, Nevada, and UCLA in their last 3 outings.
College football betting sites are offering up an extremely-wide point spread on the contest between Wyoming and host Fresno State this Saturday night.
Who: Wyoming Cowboys at Fresno State Bulldogs
When: Saturday, October 13th, 10:30 PM EST
Where: Bulldog Stadium, Fresno, CA
Lines: Wyoming (+18) at Fresno St. (-18) / O/U Total: (43)
Fresno State has been dominant in 4 out of 5 games. The 21-14 loss to a Big Ten also-ran is the only knock on the Bulldogs’ record. On the season as a whole, they’ve outscored opponents 201-78.
Meanwhile, 2018 hasn’t always seemed like Wyoming’s year so far. At 2-4, the Cowboys’ only wins have come against New Mexico State (29-7) and Wofford (17-14). They’re getting outscored 83-153 on the season.
In a divergent style from the standard run-and-gun, Fresno State is winning with defense. A 15.6 points per game allowed ranks the defense 10th in the FBS. That’s not good news for a Wyoming team which has struggled to move the ball all season, ranking T-120th in passing and T-97th in rushing and only averaging 17.5 points per game (128th in the FBS).
Through 6 games under center, Vander Waal is confident he is improving and sees better days ahead:
Vander Waal isn’t unlike most freshmen that experience the ups and downs that come with their introduction to the FBS level, but the 6-foot-4, 220-pounder said he’s past his initiation stage. With that comes the belief the offense can open things up in Mountain West play starting with the Cowboys’ highly anticipated league opener against Boise State on Saturday at War Memorial Stadium. “I think the goal through the first four games was kind of just to get my feet wet and see what it’s all about,” Vander Waal said. “I think the plan was just to throw when we had to like on third-down scenarios. (The coaches) didn’t want to put me in any bad situations and limit turnovers, which we did.
“I think from here on out, I think the coaches have gained that confidence in me. So from here on out, they know what I’m capable of. I think we could throw the ball.”
Vander Waal had not thrown more than 28 passes in any of the Cowboys’ first three games before attempting 42 against Wofford when a closer-than-anticipated game called for it. With Wyoming trailing 14-10 and needing to cover 80 yards in 1 minute, 59 seconds in order to avoid the upset, Vander Waal went 6 of 12 on the final possession.
Seriously, these types of stories stand to illustrate just how futile the optimism can be when a team is going nowhere fast. It’s like one of those auto-generated Madden football headlines: “QB Says Better Days Ahead.”
But at the same time Wofford is an extremely-proud FCS program, and there’s no shame in having to come back to beat the Terriers.
Wyoming should maybe turn more towards the run game and senior Nico Evans, who has failed to carry more than 24 times on the season, but is averaging 7.8ypc; he recorded 192 yards on the ground in last week’s 17-13 loss to Hawaii.
Senior QB Marcus McMaryion has been fantastic for Fresno State. His completion percentage is up a whole 10 points from last year, settling in at a brilliant 72%.
But even with the passing production, the run game has struggled. The Bulldogs rank 102nd in the FBS in rushing and their leading ball carrier, sophomore Jordan Mims, is averaging only 3.7ypc on the ground. Finding a consistent ground game is a point of emphasis for the Bulldogs this week.
Finding consistency in the run game against Wyoming could be as struggle, as the Cowboys’ best defensive player comes in the interior of the defensive line in 6’4” 282 lb. defensive tackle Youhanna Ghaifan. Ghaifan has 5.5 tackles for loss and a forced fumble this season.
This just feels like one of those conference match-ups that is like a car in the rear view mirror – closer than it appears. At least on paper. Wyoming will find enough running lanes and short passes to score around 15 points, and I’m not sure that the Bulldogs can score 5 touchdowns flat. A better ground game would come in handy trying to put MWC foes away early, and if it’s a game in the 4th quarter, chances are the margin stays within 17 points.
31-20 sounds about right for the final.
Don’t dare take Wyoming on the ML, but the Cowboys are a fine pick to cover at (+18).