So the maiden college football Saturday of 2019 couldn’t have kicked things off any better, or at least that was the narrative on social media after the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors stopped Arizona’s Khalil Mack just 1 yard short of the goal line at the tail end of a late-night upset thriller.
But of course there was more than 1 scrum on Saturday night. Many time zones away, the Miami Hurricanes had scared the pants off 8th-ranked Florida on a neutral field. The opener in Orlando was sloppy and not always fun to watch – an even less-tidy contest than the Hawaii-Arizona game that ended with 8 turnovers.
Which 60-minute “preview” will Week 1 turn out to resemble more? Hopefully like the game in Halawa, unless you enjoy biting your nails through 3rd-and-25 in 1 ACC vs SEC blunder-bowl after another.
Hawaii doesn’t play in Week 1, which means a collection of late west-coast kickoffs will serve as gamblers’ prime “bail-out” opportunity on Saturday. Southern Cal hosts Fresno State in another scrum in which the Mountain West team may be undervalued by the sports media, and where the media goes the public typically goes – USC’s moneyline odds-to-win have shrunken from 1-to-3 all the way to 1-to-6.
Vegas odds-makers have to balance out the action, but know that it’s dangerous for a reigning conference champion like Fresno State to be such a steep underdog in the markets.
Who: Fresno State Bulldogs at Southern California Trojans
When: Saturday, August 31st, 10:30 PM EST
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
Lines: Fresno State (+14) at USC (-14) / O/U Total: (52)
Southern Cal skipper Clay Helton (who I affectionately call “Chip Hilton”) took a great big fat chance in 2018-19. He knew that his new QB J.T. Daniels might have more pure passing talent than anyone in the FBS, but that the kid was green and that the team would suffer growing pains to the Nth degree with Daniels in place for a year of important seasoning.
Now it’s Daniels’ turn to pay it forward by playing like a college kid, not a High School player, this autumn. A talented crop of receivers including sophomore Amon-Ra St. Brown and 6’4” senior Michael Pittman Jr. could provide a security blanket for the prodigal QB.
The front-7 will be mean and imposing, with sophomore Marlon Tuipulotu and senior Christian Rector providing the versatility to stuff the run and also rush the QB around the edge.
That’s enough to make USC a favorite over any Mountain West school, but a 2-TD favorite over the defending MWC champs?
Let’s remember that the Bulldogs are just magnificent against Las Vegas.
Fresno State hit rock-bottom in 2016 when former coach Tim DeRuyter was let go. The Mountain West school had already covered in a handful of games that season, but was incapable of actually winning until Tedford took over in November. Since 2017, Fresno State is an astounding 21-6-1 against consensus point spreads, averaging beating the Sin City spread by 8.3 points.
That’s more than a touchdown and a 2-point conversion, ladies and gents. Whenever the Bulldogs have been a TD-underdog to a given opponent they have usually been the true favorite by at least an XP or a field goal in actual gambling value. What a great wager!
Recent starting QBs like Marcus McMaryion have soaked-up a lot of press coverage in NorCal, but what I really like about Tedford’s teams is the stubborn defense.
In a series of high-pressure conference meetings with Boise State over the last 2 seasons, Fresno State has allowed 17, 17, 24 and 13 points from the Broncos over 4 quarters a pop.
As for the 2019 squad, the loss of RB Jordan Mims to a season-ending injury has probably caused a lot of the sour Las Vegas line-movement on the Bulldogs, for Week 1 against USC and in “futures” markets. It’s also likely that speculators don’t trust new starting QB Jorge Reyna, but he’s not exactly a green-horned frosh kid, and he’s already familiar with the Fresno offense:
The 6-foot Reyna emerged as one of the top junior college passers on the west coast after a standout season at West Los Angeles College in 2016. After earning Metro League Offensive Player of the Year honors, where he passed for 3,646 yards and 39 touchdowns against eight interceptions during his sophomore junior college season, Reyna was one of Tedford’s first recruits as a mid-year transfer.
In 2017, Reyna redshirted in his first year at Fresno State.
If J.T. Daniels takes a huge offseason leap forward and has a great Week 1, and if USC’s other puzzle-pieces fall into place for Helton like never before, and Fresno State has a bad night, then Southern Cal could win this contest by 40 or 50 points. But those are big ifs – and don’t warrant an ATS line of multiple touchdowns.
This is an unproven-as-yet Power-5 team playing a fierce MWC contender in its home state. The last time that happened was last Saturday…and the Mountain West team won by a yard.
Take Fresno State to cover a spread of (+14) at USC.