Two old rivals both desperate for a win get together this weekend as the Tennessee Volunteers host the Florida Gators. Game time is set for 7:00 EST on Saturday, September 22, at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee. The game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
According to this week’s college football odds, Florida is a 4.5-point favorite on the road. However, early betting has brought that number down after the Gators opened favored by 5.5 points.
The Volunteers began the season and the Jeremy Pruitt era with a lopsided 40-14 loss at the hands of West Virginia. But the Vols have been able to bounce back with twins the past two weeks. Of course, those wins have come against East Tennessee State, an FCS foe, and UTEP, a program that went 0-12 last season, so those victories don’t necessarily inspire a lot of confidence.
Following this weekend’s game with Florida, Tennessee’s next three games come against Georgia, Auburn, and Alabama, all top-10 teams. If the Vols can’t beat Florida, it will be a month until they have a realistic chance to win a game. If Pruitt wants to take Tennessee to a bowl game in his first season, this is a virtual must-win game.
Florida, meanwhile, is hoping to avoid starting 0-2 in the SEC. The Gators have had a pair of easy wins this season against Charleston Southern and Colorado State. However, sandwiched in between those two wins was a home loss against Kentucky. It was the first time Florida had lost to Kentucky in over 30 years, so it did not sit well with the fan base.
Before the season, the Gators were considered a sleeper in the SEC East with Dan Mullen taking the reigns in Gainesville. But Florida certainly didn’t look like a contender two weeks ago and they definitely won’t be if they fall to 0-2 in conference play. With ranked teams on the schedule in three of their next four games, the Gators need to win this game or else they could be left scrambling in November just to reach a bowl game.
Most years, this is one of the most anticipated rivalry games in the SEC. Of course, the Florida-Tennessee rivalry has lost some luster with both teams going through ups and downs in recent years. Nevertheless, the Gators have continued their dominance, winning 12 of the last 13 meetings with Tennessee. However, the Vols won two years ago in Knoxville and have hopes for a similar result on Saturday.
To be blunt, both of these teams have a lot of work ahead of them just to get to six or seven wins this season. But Tennessee seems a little further behind Florida. Even in their wins, it’s not hard to find flaws. I think this game will stay close during the 1st half, but the Gators have enough talent to pull away in the 2nd half and cover a spread that’s less than a touchdown.
Despite the loss to Kentucky, I wouldn’t be too concerned about Florida. The Wildcats aren’t all that bad and that game was a lot closer than the 27-16 score indicates. The Gators were also impressive last week, especially on defense, against Colorado State. The Rams can flat-out score, at least against average defensive teams, so the fact that Florida held them to 10 points and scored a defensive touchdown makes me feel good about the Gators defensively against Tennessee.
Even though the Vols racked up over 500 yards of offense against UTEP last week, they only scored 24 points. With that many yards against such a bad team, Tennessee should have scored in the 30s or 40s. The fact that they didn’t do much against a fairly modest West Virginia defense the first week of the season is also a little concerning. Sophomore quarterback Jarrett Guarantano has played well this season and is starting to develop. But he’s got to be better at getting the Volunteers into the end zone. If he couldn’t do it against UTEP, he’ll likely struggle to do it against Florida.
Meanwhile, the jury is still out of the Tennessee defense. I’m not going to draw any conclusions based on playing UTEP or East Tennessee State, nor will I overreact to giving up 40 points against West Virginia. I’m inclined to think they’ll be fine because Pruitt is a specialist on that side of the ball, but I don’t know for sure.
Oddly enough, I feel the same way about the Florida offense putting up big numbers against Colorado State, as the Rams are quite terrible on that side of the ball. I believe that Mullen will eventually get the Florida offense looking like the Gators of old. But in the present, the running game has been average while quarterback Feleipe Franks still has a long way to go. Whether the Florida offense can do more against Tennessee than they did against Kentucky is anybody’s guess.
Ultimately, such a low spread makes me want to side with the Gators. I expect the Florida defense to stifle the Vols, making for a close, low-scoring game. Eventually, Florida should find a breakthrough, even if it comes in the form of a defensive or special teams touchdown. With less than a touchdown to cover, I’ll lean toward the Gators on the road.