The ACC season gets started with a bang on Labor Day, as the no. 19 Florida State Seminoles host the no. 20 Virginia Tech Hokies. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 EST on Monday, September 3, at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
The Seminoles are listed as 7.5-point favorites at home. Early betting has favored Florida State, who opened as 6-point favorites. The over/under for the game is set at 57 points. Click Here to see a full list of this week’s betting odds.
The Seminoles are coming off a tumultuous season in 2017. Despite preseason aspirations to win a national championship, the ‘Noles started the season 2-5. They needed a three-game winning streak at the end of the season, including a win in a makeup game, just to become bowl eligible. In the end, they finished the season strong at 7-6 following an Independence Bowl victory over Southern Miss.
Of course, the school parted ways with longtime head coach Jimbo Fisher following the season. Willie Taggart, who was a Florida State fan growing up, has taken over after one year at Oregon and he’s brought his up-tempo offense with him. However, on the heels of a 7-6 season, Taggart may not get much of a honeymoon period if FSU doesn’t get off to a fast start.
Virginia Tech, meanwhile, is coming off another solid season under Justin Fuente. The Hokies are 19-8 in his two seasons, finishing in the top-25 each year. However, Virginia Tech failed to win the ACC Coastal division and then lost their bowl game, two things the Hokies will be looking to amend this season.
Oddly enough, these two teams haven’t played each other since 2012 by virtue of playing in different divisions. Both have been frequent participants in the ACC Championship Game over the years but they have not matched up against one another since a regular season meeting in 2012. The Seminoles won that game in Blacksburg 28-22. Of course, with this being a conference game, both teams will feel pressure to win and get off to a fast start.
As you can see from the no. 19 and no. 20 rankings that accompany these teams, there isn’t much of a difference between them talent-wise. Florida State will get a little bit of an edge by playing at home. But with the spread increasing to the point of being more than a touchdown, I’m going to lean toward Virginia Tech. After the kind of season the Seminoles had last year and a new coaching staff in place, I don’t trust them to cover more than a touchdown.
In Taggart’s offensive system, the emphasis is usually on running the ball. On the one hand, that’s fortunate for the Seminoles because running back Cam Akers is their best offensive weapon. However, Virginia Tech typically has a strong defensive line that may be able to help neutralize Akers. The Florida State offensive line also a lot to prove after their struggles last season. The group is also a little young, so providing a consistent push for Akers isn’t a guarantee.
If the Seminoles want to attack Virginia Tech’s biggest weakness, they’ll have to do it through the air. After losing players early to the NFL and having a few more lost over the summer for various reasons, the Hokies are looking thin in the secondary. With Deondre Francois coming back from the knee injury that caused him to miss most of last season, the Seminoles have a quarterback who may be able to take advantage of that secondary. However, FSU is light on proven wide receivers, so whether they can expose the Tech secondary remains to be seen.
The Hokies, meanwhile, will be putting their offense in the hands of sophomore quarterback Josh Jackson. As a redshirt freshman last year, Jackson impressed with both his arm and his legs. With a year of experience under his belt, he could be ready for a monster season. However, Virginia Tech may not have enough pieces around Jackson to help him reach his full potential.
The Hokies struggled to run the ball last year and have now lost top receiver Cam Phillips. If some skill players can step up and become reliable targets for Jackson, the FSU defense could be vulnerable. The Seminoles are young at linebacker and will be replacing high-end talent in the secondary. But much like the Florida State offense, Virginia Tech’s younger players may not be ready to emerge as stars this early in the season.
To be frank, it’s tough to know too much about either team until we see them at least one time. Knowing both teams have plenty of talent and potential makes it even harder to predict how this game will go. With that in mind, I’ll take the safer pick and lean toward Virginia Tech and the points. I have to assume this will be a low-scoring, one-possession game, meaning Florida State won’t cover the spread.