I have written often about the damage coaches can do to a program when they leave before bowl season for a bigger paycheck somewhere else. Far from irrelevant to college football betting, it’s actually a crucial weapon in the hands of the gambler who follows the coaching carousel.
For instance, former Oregon coach Willie Taggart (who now coaches the Florida State Seminoles) left early for Tallahassee last season, leaving the moneyline-favored Ducks to flounder against Boise State in a humiliating Las Vegas Bowl beat-down.
Ironically, the last time Northern Illinois faced FSU was in the Orange Bowl in 2012. Then-departing NIU head coach Dave Doeren says that leaving the team in December to take a job in the ACC is one of his biggest regrets in a long career. The Huskies played nobly on defense in that Orange Bowl, but the offense was impotent as FSU eventually romped 31-10.
The 2 programs are still much the same as they were – Northern Illinois is the one true power team in the MAC, overwhelming opponents with teamwork and 11-on-11 running much like a service academy. And Florida State is still a big, fast, Power-5 roster full of 4 and 5-star athletes.
Will it be a re-hash of 2012 when the schools meet this Saturday? With both teams nursing their wounds at 1-2, bookies aren’t exactly sure.
Who: Northern Illinois Huskies at Florida State Seminoles
When: Saturday, September 22nd, 3:30 PM EST
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Lines: NIU (+10) at FSU (-10) / O/U Total: (45)
Northern Illinois is playing fine defense, one of the enduring calling-cards of the proud MAC program. In Week 1, the Huskies held Iowa to around 100 passing yards. In Week 2, NIU opponent Utah only rushed for 68 yards and barely scored an offensive touchdown.
But those numbers belie how the games actually went for Rod Carey’s team. Iowa beat them by several touchdowns, and Utah turned the momentum of a pick-6 into a leisurely 17-6 win in the 2nd game. NIU has only a paltry victory over Central Michigan in Week 3, and the offense still isn’t producing much at all.
Dave Drury, a beat reporter who has covered the Huskies for quite some time, sounds frustrated with Carey and the coaching staff in an interview with Tomahawk Nation:
The biggest issue in our offense is the lack of variety. The Huskies use the same plays over and over and, while it works in the first half (sometimes), by the second half the defenses have adjusted and are able to get stops. And, instead of showing anything new our coaches just keep trying with the same plays…leading to many 3-and-outs and, in the second half, a very tired defense.
And that’s why you see numbers like these: in the first half NIU’s defense has given up a total of 6 points, in the second half they’ve given up 53 points. And that’s all from our offense not being able to sustain offensive drives. Best way to fix this…adjust to the defense’s adjustments and, for the love of God, run some new plays!! NIU fan’s have been yelling that for years at Rod Carey and company…we’ll see if they actually mix it up this time.
I’m not totally buying into that, because the best coaches are stubborn and stick to their systems. But there’s no denying that NIU quarterback Marcus Childers and his supporting cast have to play better. Sophomore RB Tre Harbison was in fact a bright spot in the 24-15 win over CMU, rushing for over 120 yards.
My rules for mid-major underdogs vs P5 powerhouses go like this: If the smaller program is clicking on all cylinders, they can beat a national contender that is struggling a little bit. If the mid-major is ailing on either side of the ball (NIU certainly qualifies) then the bigger program can wallop them, presuming they can play to a dominant level on either offense or defense.
The Seminoles didn’t have much happening on either unit in last weekend’s dismal 30-7 loss to Syracuse. Deondre Francois was a fright, and the Orange ran almost twice the number of offensive plays as FSU mustered.
But Syracuse is a fast-improving program, and Week 3 may have been the low point and partly an outlier for Florida State.
Willie Taggart is one of the most overrated coaches in the FBS in my view, and boosters may already be starting to feel the pain of a bad decision to hire him. However, the Week 1 contest against VT may have been a better indicator of where the Seminoles are at right now. Pretty decent defense, but an offense that can’t get out of the blocks.
I’m liking Florida State to cover the spread, since the team’s offensive line can use its size and strength advantage to overcome some of the other deficiencies in this one.
But don’t expect a massive blow-out. The under is also a good pick, as this game is likely to be slower-paced even with Taggart coaching. The easiest way for FSU to win is to run, run, run and play conservatively. If the Seminoles try opening up in the 1st half, consider a switch to NIU on a live-bet to cover.