College Football Betting Preview & Free Pick: Florida State vs Louisville

Both teams will be seeking their first ACC win of the season this weekend when the Florida State Seminoles host the Louisville Cardinals. The game is set to begin at 3:30 EST on Saturday, September 21 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida. Fans can catch all of the action on ESPN.

The week began with Florida State favored by 8.5-points at home, but the ‘Noles are now listed as only 6.5-point favorites. The over/under for the game is set at 61 points. Click here to check out a full list of this week’s college football betting odds.

Florida State vs Louisville Game Preview & Betting Odds

Most expected Louisville to have a long, rebuilding season under new head coach Scott Satterfield. But the Cardinals have actually bounced back well after losing their season opener to Notre Dame. If nothing else, Louisville has avoided losing to a couple of Blue Grass State rivals, beating Eastern Kentucky 42-0 a couple of weeks ago and going on the road to beat Western Kentucky 38-21 last week.

The goal for Satterfield and the Cardinals is to get four more wins in order to reach a bowl game. That would be a huge accomplishment for Louisville if they can pull it off. On paper, this is one of the swing games that Louisville needs to go in their favor if they’re going to become bowl eligible.

The Seminoles, meanwhile, find themselves in a similar situation. Florida State missed out on a bowl game last year and can’t afford to stay home in December again this year. Unfortunately, the Seminoles have started the season 1-2, losing to Boise State at home and Virginia on the road last week. In between, Florida State barely survived an overtime game with Louisiana-Monroe that would have gone to another overtime if not for ULM missing an extra point.

Blown leads have become a theme for Florida State this season. They led Boise State 31-13 late in the third quarter and lost 36-31. They had a 10-point lead over ULM early in the fourth quarter but were forced into overtime. The Seminoles even led Virginia 17-10 heading into the fourth quarter last week, only to lose 31-24.

A few years ago, this would have one of the marquee games all year in the ACC. Instead, it’s a battle between two teams that will probably struggle to reach a bowl game if they lose this week. Florida State has taken three of the five meetings between the teams since Louisville joined the ACC, including a 28-24 win last season. However, the Cardinals won 31-28 in their last trip to Tallahassee in 2017. Of course, both programs have taken huge steps backward since that game.

Free College Football Against the Spread Pick: Louisville +6.5

Early in the week, most of the action has favored Louisville and I’m jumping on the bandwagon. Based on the first three weeks of the season, I can’t trust Florida State to cover a touchdown. They may be the better team, but it’s been one collapse after another this year, regardless of the opponent. Even if the Seminoles get a lead, they’re likely to cough it up and make the game close in the fourth quarter. I’ll lean toward the Cardinals to beat the spread.

Satterfield appears to be throwing a curveball at Florida State this week with regard to the quarterback position. Jawon Pass sat out last week due to injury, leaving backup Malik Cunningham to get the start with Evan Conley getting some snaps as well. Mum is the word on whether Pass will be healthy enough to play this week. Even if he is, Satterfield isn’t saying whether it’ll be pass or Cunningham to get the start.

The two Louisville quarterbacks have distinct skillsets, so the FSU defense is at a disadvantage if they don’t know who they’ll be facing ahead of time. Pass, is the better thrower, although he can use his legs. Cunningham is more inclined to run the ball, although he connected on a few passes last week against Western Kentucky. Cunningham seems to fit the offense Satterfield wants to run a little better. However, the FSU defense has struggled against the pass this season, so Pass could be the better option if he’s available.

Meanwhile, the Florida State offense has been a mixed bag this season. Cam Akers has run free at times, although a solid Virginia defense kept him contained last week. Also, quarterback James Blackman has had plenty of promising moments. But he’s also struggled at times and been held back by an inconsistent offensive line. I don’t think the Louisville defense is anything special. But the FSU offense hasn’t been consistent enough to make me think they’ll dominate the Cardinals on that side of the ball.

All things considered, this feels like an evenly matched game. I think Florida State is the better team, but they’ve struggled to put four quarters together this year. Louisville should be good enough to take advantage of that, as I’ve been impressed with the job Satterfield has done thus far. In the end, I don’t trust Florida State enough to eat the points, so I’ll take my chances with Louisville beating the spread.

Read More Like This