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The No. 12 Florida Gators host the No. 13 Florida State Seminoles on Saturday, November 28 in a rivalry game. The Seminoles have won four of the last five meetings, including a 24-19 home win last year en route to making the four-team playoff.

Florida (10-1, 6-0 home) survived a scare last week in a 20-14 (OT) home win over Florida Atlantic as 28.5-point favorites. Treon Harris hit Jake McGee for a 13-yard touchdown pass on the first possession of overtime, and the defense held from there to secure the win.

Florida State (9-2, 2-2 away) is coming off a 52-13 laugher against Chattanooga as 28-point favorites. Dalvin Cook rushed for 106 yards and two touchdowns, while Sean Maguire threw a pair of touchdown passes in the win.

Kickoff inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is scheduled for 7:30 EST Saturday night with ESPN providing the television coverage. If you want to place a bet on this game, you’ll be working with a line of Florida State -2 over Florida and a total set of 43.5 points.

My Early Lean: Florida State -2

The Florida Gators might be the worst team I’ve ever seen to have a 10-1 record this late in the season. They have been lucky all year in winning close games, and especially close games against bad teams, which is the most concerning part about it. I believe the right team is favored here in the Florida State Seminoles, who are clearly the better, more supremely talented team.

Let’s just look at Florida’s last three games. The Gators beat Vanderbilt 9-7 at home as 21-point favorites, they needed a late touchdown to put away an awful South Carolina team 24-14 on the road, and then they needed overtime to beat Florida Atlantic 20-14 as 28.5-point home favorites last week. Not only that, but they were actually outgained by the Owls by 47 yards in that game. Also don’t forget the close home wins over Tennessee (28-27) and East Carolina (31-24) early in the season, as well as the 14-9 road win at Kentucky. They’ve gone 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less.

Florida State has needed no such luck to get to 9-2 this season. Seven of its nine wins have come by 14 points or more. It suffered a fluke loss to Georgia Tech in which the Yellow Jackets blocked a potential game-winning field goal by the Seminoles and returned it for a touchdown on the final play. The only legitimate loss the Seminoles have suffered as a 13-23 loss at Clemson, which is the No. 1 ranked team in the country. It’s worth noting that was a 13-13 game heading into the fourth quarter as well.

Florida just doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with Florida State. The Gators have been held to an average of 360 yards per game this season against opponents that allow 381 yards per game, so they are a below-average offensive team. They have scored 28 or fewer points in six consecutive games, and an average of just 17.7 points in their last three games against Vanderbilt, South Carolina and FAU. That even includes the overtime score against FAU.

The Seminoles boast an elite offense this season. They are putting up 32.8 points and 435.9 yards per game. But what really tells the story is that they are averaging 6.7 yards per play against opponents that only allow 5.6 yards per play. To compare, Florida is only averaging 5.4 yards per play this season.

Florida State has had Florida’s number in recent years. It is 4-1 straight up in its last five meetings with Florida, which includes wins by 24, 14 and 30 points. Two of those came in their last two trips to Gainesville. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The favorite is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

Florida State has had Florida’s number in recent years. It is 4-1 straight up in its last five meetings with Florida, which includes wins by 24, 14 and 30 points. Two of those came in their last two trips to Gainesville. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The favorite is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Florida is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after allowing 14 points or less last game. Florida State is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

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