Free NCAAF Pick Against the Spread: Duke vs Virginia Tech

The ACC helps kick off a Friday night of college football with a Coastal division matchup between the Virginia Tech Hokies and Duke Blue Devils. Game time is at 7:00 EST on Friday, September 27 at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Virginia. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.

According to oddsmakers, the Hokies are 2.5-point favorites at home with an over/under of 56 points. Be sure to check out a full list of the Week 5 college football odds.

Virginia Tech vs Duke Vegas Odds & Game Preview

For Virginia Tech, last year’s down season under Justin Fuente is looking less and less like an aberration. The Hokies were road favorites in their season opener, only to lose to Boston College after committing five turnovers. For what it’s worth, Fuente’s team has bounced back with wins in their last two games. However, those wins have come against Old Dominion and FCS opponent Furman, and neither was all that convincing. In fact, Virginia Tech trailed Furman 14-3 at halftime until getting their act together and winning 24-17.

The good news for the Hokies is they’re 2-1 and only need four wins to keep their bowl streak intact. The bad news is that they’ve barely survived some of their easier games and still have road games against Miami, Notre Dame, and Virginia on their schedule. The Hokies are in need of both a strong performance and a win Friday against Duke.

As for the Blue Devils, they’ve bounced back nicely after a loss to Alabama in their season opener. Duke’s schedule hasn’t been too difficult since playing the Crimson Tide. But unlike Virginia Tech, the Blue Devils have taken care of business against lesser opponents, beating North Carolina A&T 45-13 and winning at Middle Tennessee 41-18.

Looking ahead, the Blue Devils face a difficult November schedule that includes games against Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Miami. It’s important for Duke to keep up the momentum of their recent wins. It’s also worth noting that the ACC Coastal division remains wide open and winning their conference opener could give the Blue Devils a big lift in their quest to reach the ACC Championship Game for the first time since 2013.

Duke is also hoping to score a rare win over Virginia Tech. The Hokies have taken 13 of 15 head-to-head meetings with the Blue Devils since joining the ACC in 2004. That includes wins over Duke in three straight years under Fuente. However, the Blue Devils have won in two of their last three trips to Blacksburg, so this wouldn’t be the first time David Cutcliffe walks away with a road win against Virginia Tech. 

Free College Football Betting Selection: Duke +2.5

The Hokies may have won their last two games, but they haven’t been playing winning football. Obviously, there’s a chance they figure things out with a home conference game on a Friday night. But things have gone downhill under Fuente the past couple of years, so I’m a little skeptical. Meanwhile, I trust Cutcliffe to have his team ready for the ACC opener. I’ll lean toward the Blue Devils to win on the road.

My biggest problem with Virginia Tech during the early part of the season has been turnovers. After committing five against Boston College, they turned it over twice against both Old Dominion and Furman. I might be able to forgive a few turnovers against good teams, but the Hokies haven’t played good teams. I can’t buy a team winning an ACC game if turnovers are that much of a problem.

My other issue with the Hokies is that they haven’t run the ball effectively when you factor in playing one low-level FBS program and one FCS program. On the season, Virginia Tech is averaging less than four yards per carry. They also failed to reach the 100-yard threshold in their loss to Boston College.

Also, even in his second year as the primary starter, I’m not sold on senior quarterback Ryan Willis. Four of the team’s nine turnovers this year are his interceptions. He also took four sacks against Furman. Most importantly, I just don’t trust him to carry the offense if the Hokies can’t generate more on the ground.

If it means anything, Duke held Alabama scoreless in the first quarter of their season opener. They also forced the Crimson Tide to sustain long drives rather than being able to strike quickly on big plays. We don’t have much else to go off of with regard to the Duke defense, but that performance against Alabama is a good sign that they can handle the Virginia Tech offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Duke offense has been productive over the last two games, albeit against lesser opponents. Quarterback Quentin Harris is known more for his legs than his arm at this point of his career. But he’s completed 72.5% of his passes this year and has a nice receiving tandem in Jalon Calhoun and Aaron Young. Also, he’s only taken one sack this season and hasn’t thrown an interception outside of the Alabama game.

In the end, there’s little evidence that Virginia Tech is ready to win an ACC game. They’ve been sloppy and made a lot of mistakes during the first month of the season. Duke, on the other hand, has looked sharp and taken care of business against weaker opponents. The Blue Devils are ready for this game, and I’m not sure the same is true for Virginia Tech. I like Duke to win as road underdogs.

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