The Army Black Knights begin their quest for a third consecutive bowl game when they visit the Duke Blue Devils. The game is scheduled for 7:00 EST on Friday, August 31, at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, NC. Fans can watch the game on ESPNU. The Blue Devils are currently favored by 14 points. Get in the know with all the 2018 college football week 1 spreads and read detailed previews on each contest.
Under head coach Jeff Monken, Army has gone to back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 1985. This season, they will try to qualify for three consecutive bowl games for the first time in program history. The Black Knights are 18-8 over the past two seasons, including a 10-3 season last year that was capped by a win over Navy in the season finale followed by a win over San Diego State in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Duke, of course, has also enjoyed success under head coach David Cutcliffe. The Blue Devils have played in a bowl game in five of the last six seasons after an extended period of time as ACC bottom dwellers. Duke actually endured a six-game losing streak in the middle of last season. But wins over Georgia Tech and Wake Forest let in the year got them to a bowl game that they won to finish the season 7-6.
These two teams have met one another in each of the past three seasons. The Blue Devils won in 2015 and 2016, but the Black Knights won last year, winning 21-16 at West Point. However, they’ll have to play at Duke this season after losing 13-6 in Durham two seasons ago.
It will be difficult for Army to match the kind of season they had in 2017, which is why they’re underdogs against the Blue Devils. But I’m not convinced that Duke will be two touchdowns better than the Black Knights the first week of the season. The games between these two teams the past two seasons have been decided by a touchdown or less. I see this game being similar, meaning it’s easy to lean toward Army and 14 points.
Army has been great in recent years at controlling the clock with their triple-option running attack. Army’s style of play doesn’t lend itself to high-scoring games or blowouts, assuming the Black Knights have a moderate level of success running the ball. That makes me a little more confident that Army can at least keep the game close.
To be fair, the Black Knights will have to break in a new quarterback, as Ahmad Bradshaw won’t be coming back in 2018. It’ll either be Luke Langdon or Kelvin Hopkins Jr. or perhaps a combination of the two, taking the snaps against Duke. Army also has to replace four starters on the offensive line. Obviously, this is a concern for the Black Knights. However, the Black Knights have experience in the rest of their backfield, so I think they’ll be fine offensively despite inexperience at quarterback.
The Duke defense, meanwhile, has a pair of top-notch linebackers in Joe Giles-Harris and Ben Humphreys. However, their 4-2-5 defensive alignment isn’t exactly built to defend the triple-option. That could force the Blue Devils to switch things up from the base formations they’ve been learning throughout training camp.
Unfortunately for Army, they don’t have the kind of offense that can take advantage of a young Duke secondary. However, the Army offense is generally fine with sticking to what they do best. In this meeting last season, the Black Knights averaged four yards per carry on the ground. If they can match that this season, they’ll be in good shape and give themselves a chance to win.
On the other side of the ball, the Black Knights return most of their key players from a defense that was surprisingly stingy last season. They held eight of their 13 opponents last season to 21 points or less, including Duke. Perhaps more importantly, Ohio State was the only team to beat Army by more than two touchdowns last year, so they are not a team that’s easy to blow out. Even if the Army offense is sluggish, the defense should be good enough to keep the Black Knights in the game.
I’m also not convinced Duke has the kind of offense that can pull away from Army. Quarterback Daniel Jones had plenty of ups and downs in his first year as a starter in 2017. The Blue Devils also have to replace three starters from an offensive line that wasn’t particularly good a season ago. If that unit doesn’t get off to a good start against Army, it could hinder the entire Duke offense.
Ultimately, I expect a close, low-scoring game between these teams, much like their last two meetings. I’d be surprised if either side scores much more than 20 points in this game. Such a game makes it highly unlikely that Duke will win with a 14-point cushion, making me confident in leaning toward Army and the points.