The no. 1 Clemson Tigers will put their undefeated record on the line this week when they visit the North Carolina Tar Heels. The action gets underway at 3:30 EST on Saturday, September 28 at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. The game will be broadcast nationally on ABC.
Oddsmakers list Clemson as 26.5-point road favorites. The over/under for the game is set at 60 points. Click here for a full list of this week’s college football betting odds.
North Carolina got off to a dream start this season in Mack Brown’s return to Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels knocked off South Carolina and Miami in consecutive weeks to start 2-0. However, it was two big steps forward and two equally big steps back for the Tar Heels. UNC is now nursing back-to-back losses at the hands of Wake Forest and Appalachian State.
The silver lining is the loss to Wake Forest didn’t count against them in the ACC standings, so North Carolina remains 1-0 in conference play. That should help them in the Coastal division race. However, at 2-2 with Clemson coming to town, the Tar Heels need to think about just becoming bowl eligible before they dream of winning the ACC Coastal division.
Of course, it’s been business as usual at Clemson, who is 4-0, pushing their current winning streak to 19 games. The Tigers have already overcome a couple of tricky games early in the season. They beat Texas A&M by two touchdowns the second week of the season and then pulled away in the second half in a tough road game against Syracuse the following week.
Believe it or not, Clemson’s most difficult games could be behind them. The Tigers aren’t scheduled to play another team that’s currently ranked. Plus, their trip to Syracuse was expected to be their most challenging ACC road game of the season. Barring the Tigers having a letdown, it could be smooth sailing between now and the College Football Playoff.
It’s worth noting that this will be Clemson’s first trip to Chapel Hill since 2010. The Tar Heels actually won that game, which was early in the Dabo Swinney era. However, the Tigers have won their three head-to-head meetings with UNC since then, including the 2015 ACC Championship Game, which was the last time these two teams saw one another.
Unless you have a good reason not to, the safest bet is to usually lean toward Clemson to cover. The Tigers gave up a garbage-time touchdown to Texas A&M that kept them from covering a spread that was a little too big. But Clemson has covered in their other wins, including a 41.5-point spread in their 52-10 win over Charlotte last week. I’ll lean toward the Tigers being able to cover again this week against the Tar Heels.
If this game were scheduled two weeks ago, a 2-0 UNC team with wins over South Carolina and Miami could have provided an intriguing test for Clemson. But the Tar Heels have been a letdown ever since, especially last week’s home loss to Appalachian State. That loss has killed all of the buzz surrounding Brown and the Tar Heels. It also makes it difficult to believe that they can stay close with Clemson.
During the early part of the season, the UNC defense has done enough to keep the Tar Heels in games and give them a chance to win. But that’s just not going to be enough against Clemson. Even if they can get the home crowd behind them, I don’t think the Tar Heels have the talent to keep Clemson contained.
The funny thing is that the Clemson offense hasn’t even hit its stride this season, and scoring 52 points against Charlotte doesn’t count. Trevor Lawrence has just seven touchdown passes to five interceptions this year, so he’s not exactly putting up Heisman numbers. However, the supporting cast around him makes up for it. Wide receivers Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross can make a bad quarterback look good with the way they can win one-on-one battles on the outside. Meanwhile, Travis Etienne is among the best running backs in the country and a threat to take it the distance every time he touches the ball. I think those three alone will be too much for UNC, and the Tigers have more playmakers just in case.
Meanwhile, the Clemson defense has been much better than expected. Somehow, the Tigers have replaced their four NFL defensive linemen from a year ago with a deep rotation of linemen that are nearly as effective. They are yet to yield more than 14 points in a game, which is impressive with Texas A&M and Syracuse on the schedule. Keep in mind that the Tar Heels are relying on true freshman Sam Howell at quarterback. He’s played well, but he’s also been sacked 15 times in four games. That makes me think the Clemson defense is going to put constant pressure on him and make it difficult for the Tar Heels to move the ball.
Despite North Carolina showing some promise this year, there’s still a huge talent gap between them and Clemson on both sides of the ball. If the Tigers anywhere close to their best, this is likely to turn into another blowout. The 26.5-point spread is reasonable, so I’ll trust Clemson to cover.