The Kansas Jayhawks hope to avenge a loss from last season when they visit the Central Michigan Chippewas this weekend. Kickoff is set for 3:00 EST on Saturday, September 8, at Kelly Shorts Stadium in Mount Pleasant, Michigan. The game is available on ESPN+
Based on this week’s college football odds, Central Michigan is a 6.5-point favorite. That line is down slightly after the Chippewas opened at -7.
The Chippewas began their season last week with a loss against Kentucky. Despite holding a lead late in the 2nd quarter and forcing four turnovers, Central Michigan didn’t have the horses to keep up with Kentucky in the second half. Despite beating the spread, the Chippewas lost 35-20 to the Wildcats, as they generated a mere 255 yards of total offense.
Things were even worse for Kansas, who lost 26-23 in overtime to Nicholls State, an FCS team. The win was well-deserved for Nicholls State, who looked like the better team for much of the game, particularly in the overtime period. No one was expecting much from the Jayhawks this season coming off a 1-11 campaign in 2017. But losing to an FCS team at home is unacceptable and puts head coach David Beaty on the hot seat right away.
As mentioned, one of Kansas’ losses a season ago came at home against Central Michigan. The Chippewas won convincingly 45-27 in Lawrence, so they should be confident about repeating that result this season on their home turf. Meanwhile, Kansas needs a win as badly as any team in the country, so perhaps that desperation can work to their advantage.
Obviously, picking a MAC team to not only beat a team from a power conference team but to also cover a touchdown is not something that happens often. Actually, I don’t even think Central Michigan is nearly as good as they were a year ago when they won in Kansas. However, this pick is all about the Jayhawks. They look absolutely pitiful coming off last week’s loss to Nicholls State, and there’s no way I can believe in them going on the road and competing this week. I’ll swallow the points and hope the Chippewas can manage to win by at least a touchdown.
The only way to defend Kansas is to mention that Nicholls State is at least a quality FCS program. They made the FCS playoffs a season ago and probably have a little more talent than most FCS teams. But that is not an excuse for the Jayhawks losing, especially considering how poorly they played.
The most disconcerting thing about Kansas’ performance last week was that they gained 56 yards rushing on 32 attempts. That amounts to 1.8 yards per carry, which wouldn’t be acceptable in the Big 12, much less against an FCS opponent. Part of the reason for those poor rushing numbers is that Nicholls State tallied six sacks in the game. The running back tandem of Khalil Herbert and Dom Williams combined for 96 yards on 18 carries, which is decent productivity. Of course, allowing six sacks against Nicholls State is a huge red flag.
If there’s a little hope for Kansas, it’s that the Chippewas were gashed on the ground last week against Kentucky. However, the Wildcats gaining nearly 300 yards and seven yards per carry against the CMU defense wasn’t all that surprising. Kentucky could end up being one of the better rushing teams in the SEC. Obviously, Central Michigan needs to get better against the run. But their poor performance last week doesn’t mean the Jayhawks are going to have success running the ball.
The CMU defense also forced four turnovers against Kentucky, so it’s not as if they didn’t have their moments. Kansas quarterback Peyton Bender threw 10 interceptions last season, with seven of them coming in the first four games of the season, including two against Central Michigan. He threw mostly short passes and check downs against Nicholls State, so the Jayhawks may not take many chances offensively. But CMU’s ability to create takeaways is something to look for against a Kansas team that isn’t overflowing with talent and has some concerns along the offensive line. Both of those elements could help the Chippewas force more takeaways this week.
On the other side of the ball, I wasn’t all too impressed with the CMU offense last week. Quarterback Tony Poljan didn’t have much success throwing the ball, especially in the second half after Kentucky had a chance to make adjustments. That being said, Nicholls State was able to move the ball with good consistency against the Kansas defense. Considering the talent level of Nicholls State, I’m confident that the Chippewas will have a better offensive game against Kansas than they did against Kentucky, especially if they can get running back Jonathan Ward going early in the game.
Overall, this could be an ugly game. Again, this Central Michigan team is not as good as the one that beat Kansas by 18 points last year. However, the Jayhawks may also be a little worse than they were in 2017. This makes me confident that playing at home the Chippewas will be able to secure a 7-point win over Kansas and cover the spread.