The North Carolina Tar Heels travel to the west coast to begin their 2018 season as they take on the California Golden Bears. Game time is set for 4:00 EST on Saturday, September 1, at Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, California. The game will be nationally televised on Fox. Oddsmakers list Cal as a 7-point favorite at home.
The Golden Bears had their moments during Justin Wilcox’s first season in charge, as they got off to a 3-0 starter after beating both North Carolina and Ole Miss. However, the Pac-12 proved to be too much for them despite an epic upset over Washington State. In the end, the Bears finished the season 5-7 and 2-7 in Pac-12 play. However, a more experienced Cal team has their eyes set on a bowl bid in 2018.
Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are coming off a disastrous season in 2017. UNC was hit by injuries early and often last year, forcing Larry Fedora to play a lot of youngsters before they were ready. The end result was a 3-9 campaign, and yet the Tar Heels still have a lot of work to do if they expect to improve upon that record this season.
To make matters worse, 13 Tar Heels have been suspended for at least one game after they sold special, school-issued Nike shoes. Quarterback Chaz Surratt, who was expected to start at quarterback, will sit out the first four games of the season, including the season opener against Cal. The team’s depth will also be challenged by missing so many players to the suspension early in the season.
As mentioned, Cal began last season with a win in Chapel Hill led by four touchdown passes from quarterback Ross Bowers. A last-second touchdown from UNC made the 35-30 score a little closer than it could have been, as California led by 11 points with less than two minutes to play. The Golden Bears now hope that they can hold serve at home against a North Carolina team that will be seeking some redemption.
This is a heavy lean in favor of the Golden Bears. Even without all the suspended players, this matchup favored Cal. The Tar Heels have a lot of growing up to do, and while Cal may have some weaknesses, UNC isn’t equipped to take advantage of them. I see Cal winning this game comfortably, having no trouble covering the 7-point spread.
With Surratt suspended, Nathan Elliott won the quarterback competition by default. He started the last four games of 2017, leading the Tar Heels to wins over Pitt and Western Carolina. However, he was abysmal against Miami and N.C. State, throwing five interceptions and completing fewer than 50% of his passes in those two games. He shouldn’t be that bad against the Cal defense, but he definitely hasn’t proved himself against an average college defense. At the very least, Cal is average defensively, perhaps better. They allowed 28 points per game last season, which is no small feat in the Pac-12.
The Golden Bears could vulnerable in the front-7, as they are replacing a lot of talent from last season. However, the Tar Heels have an inexperienced offensive line that is also missing some players due to the suspensions. To be fair, UNC has a couple decent running backs. But they could struggle to get much going without strong play from the offensive line. Cal should have enough up front to win in the trenches. The Bears also have a strong secondary that may be able to force a couple turnovers if the Tar Heels become one-dimensional.
On the other side of the ball, Cal returns an experienced quarterback in Bowers and all five starters along the offensive line. Bowers improved both his accuracy and his turnover rate the second half of last season, so he could be ready for a big season. The Cal backfield, despite a lack of depth, returns Patrick Laird, who rushed for over 1,100 yards last season. Between the return of Laird, Bowers, and a veteran offensive line, the Bears should have a balanced attack this season.
Meanwhile, the Tar Heels have been absolutely dreadful at stopping the run the past couple seasons. If that continues, the Golden Bears could have a field day. It’s important to note that UNC has a veteran-laden defensive line. That could give them a fighting chance to get stops against the Cal offense. However, their best pass rusher Malik Carney is one of the players who’s suspended early in the season, which is a huge blow for the entire UNC defense.
Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if this game got out of hand in favor of the Golden Bears. Cal looks poised to take a step forward this year, especially on offense. I can’t say the same for North Carolina, who has the added challenge of playing this game 3,000 miles from home. I’m comfortable picking Cal to win and easily cover the spread.
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