The Arizona Wildcats begin a new season with a new head coach by playing a home game against the BYU Cougars. Game time is set for 10:45 EST on Saturday, September 1 at Arizona Stadium in Tucson. The game will be nationally televised on ESPN. The Wildcats are listed as 11.5-point favorites over the Cougars when look at this week’s college football Vegas spreads.
Arizona enters the 2018 season at a little bit of a crossroads. They are coming off a 7-6 season that saw them lose four of their final games after starting out 6-2 and 4-1 in Pac-12 play. Soon after the season ended, head coach Rich Rodriguez was fired following allegations of sexual harassment by a former administrative assistant.
However, there are reasons to be optimistic. The Wildcats have brought in Kevin Sumlin as their new head coach, a potential upgrade over Rodriguez. Arizona also has a potential Heisman candidate at quarterback in Khalil Tate, so expectations are high heading into the season with some believing they have a chance to win the Pac-12 South.
BYU, on the other hand, is coming off an abysmal 4-9 campaign in 2017. It was the first time since 2004 that BYU didn’t qualify for a bowl game. The Cougars were particularly inept offensively last season, scoring 10 or fewer points five times. That gives head coach Kalani Sitake a lot of work to do in his third season in Provo. If he doesn’t get things back on track, he could find himself on the hot seat.
These two teams also opened the season against one another in 2016 with the Cougars pulling out an 18-16 win. However, neither team currently resembles what they looked like that day, so there’s not much we can learn about that head-to-head meeting.
After a coaching change at Arizona and a staff shakeup at BYU, these are two of the more mysterious teams heading into the 2018 season. Ultimately, I have a hard time buying that a program as consistent at BYU will be unable to bounce back after going 4-9 last year. I’m expecting the Cougars to be much-improved this season, which is why I have a hard time believe Arizona will roll over them. I’ll lean toward BYU to at least keep the deficit in the single digits.
The Wildcats may have a Heisman candidate in Tate, but Tate is no longer in an offense that fits him. He was a perfect fit for the offense that Rodriguez ran, as it allowed him to accumulate nearly as many rushing attempts as passing attempts this season. Sumlin will look to have a more balanced attack this season. That doesn’t mean he’ll ignore Tate’s legs as a weapon, but it may mean more throwing from the pocket.
Tate was a little uneven as a passer last year, throwing 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also struggled with his accuracy against some of the better defenses the Wildcats faced. BYU may not have an elite defense, but they were far better on that side of the ball last year than a 4-9 record suggests. The Cougars have also focused on getting faster on defense this year, so they may be able to avoid getting hurt too much by Tate’s legs. BYU also has some viable pass-rushing threats who could have Tate running because he has to and not because he wants to.
Of course, it’s on the offensive side of the ball where the Cougars will have to show improvement from last season. The good news is that senior quarterback Tanner Mangum has recovered from an Achilles injury and will be able to start the season. The bad news is he had a dreadful campaign last season before the injury, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns and competing only 57% of his passes. However, it’s important to remember that Magnum threw for 3,300 yards and 23 touchdowns as a freshman in 2015, so he’s more than capable of being a competent quarterback at this level.
The key for the Cougars will be getting more help around Mangum. Running back Squally Canada returns after a strong finish the 2017 campaign. Hawaii grad transfer Dylan Collie will also give the Cougars an immediate upgrade at wide receiver. If Mangum has viable weapons around him than last year, he’s good enough to know how to use them. At least on paper, that appears to be the case.
The Arizona defense could also be a little vulnerable after being one of the worst in the Pac-12 last year. To be fair, the Wildcats have a lot coming back from what was an experienced defense a year ago. But the Arizona defense is still young in a lot of places and has a lot to prove. With a veteran quarterback like Mangum leading the BYU offense, there’s a chance for the Cougars to do some damage against a defense with a lot of questions to answer.
I understand why the Wildcats are favored by double digits in this game. But I have a hard time believing that BYU will be anywhere near as bad as they were in 2017. I don’t know if that will translate to an upset win over Arizona in the season opener. But it’s enough for me to take the Cougars with an 11.5-point cushion.