Bowling Green at Michigan State Vegas Odds, Preview & Free Pick

It’s been a roller coaster ride the last two year for Bowling Green who travels to East Lansing, Michigan, to face Michigan State in its season opener. After winning 10 games in 2105, HC Dino Babers understandably accepted a better opportunity at Syracuse. Mike Jinx became the Falcons third coach in four years and the results were close to disastrous. The Falcon started the year at 1-9 with the lone win a one-point escape against FCS North Dakota. The B.G.s managed to close the season with three straight wins over fellow MAC conference doormats to salvage something of a very disappointing season.

Speaking of disappointing, Michigan State went from 12 wins in 2015 to just three last year, the Spartans first losing season in 10 seasons under Mark Dantonio. The worst part about it was that at certain points of the season, the players appeared to have quit or just flat out didn’t care. Equally disappointing was the fact that seniors accounted for 50% of Spartan starts last year. Mercifully, just eight starters return allowing Dantonio a mulligan with a fresh slate.

This Big Ten/MAC crossover series has been played twice before with Michigan State winning in 1981 and 28-17 (-18) in 2007. The Spartans are just 2-5 SU and ATS in seven matchups with MAC opponents since 2012. You can catch the early 12:00 PM noon EST kickoff on ESPNU or on Direct TV channel 2008.

Point Spread & Total (Over/Under) Analysis: Bowling Green vs. Michigan State

It is easy to identify how Bowling Green went South so quickly. The Falcons were dead last in the country in passing efficiency and only Kansas Jayhawks (2-22 L2yrs) committed more turnovers. Not being able to throw the ball after you’ve fallen behind from turning the ball over is no recipe for success. The Falcons ran the ball for 980 yards in their three wins to close the season. Jinks has a perfectly proportioned 12 returning starters including a senior QB, two backs who ran for 500+ yards and wide out Scott Miller (74, 968, 10 TDs). Bowling Green returns nine of their top 14 tacklers on defense, a unit that gave up 38.3 ppg. in 2016.

There is no quick fix for in store for the Michigan State Spartans. Sparty returned just eight starters as it was and lost several key pieces in the spring via injury and off the field problems. As a result, Michigan State will be the least experienced team in the Big Ten in 2017. The only positive on offense is the return of top back L.J. Scott (1035, 5.6, 6 TDs). One defensive lineman returns from a stop unit that recorded just 11 sacks and forced just 13 turnovers in 2016.

Free Vegas Odds Pick Against the Spread: Michigan State -18

These are two teams that enter the 2017 season with more questions than answers. Bowling Green won 28 games between 2013-2015 at this point don’t figure to even finish in the top half of the MAC’s East Division. Michigan State is in a similar plight having won 36 games from 2013-2015 and at this point might be no better than 5th (Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Indiana) in the Big Ten East Division.

It’s a pass for us on this game and we’ll be watching both these teams through September nonconference play to see exactly where these teams are and when we’ll be able to pull the trigger with money. There’s no point forcing games ever, never mind the first week of the college football season.


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