The Boston College Eagles get their 2018 season underway by hosting their in-state rivals, the UMass Minutemen. Game time is set for 1:00 EST on Saturday, September 1 at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. Fans can watch the game on the ACC Network. Oddsmakers list the Eagles as 18.5-point favorites over the Minutemen. See who else the oddsmakers have favored this week.
The Eagles have been remarkably consistent under Steve Addazio. In four of his five seasons, they’ve finished 7-6, with the only exception being a 3-9 campaign in 2015. Considering that they play in the top-heavy ACC Atlantic division, such consistency is nothing to scoff at. However, the Eagles believe they have the pieces to take a step forward in 2018, perhaps even pushing for a 10-win season.
UMass also believe they can take a step forward in 2018, although in a different way. The Minutemen won four of their last six games in 2017 to finish the year 4-8, giving them a little momentum heading into this year. UMass took care of business against FCS opponent Duquesne last week to start the year 1-0. However, we can’t take that result too seriously. The real season begins this week when they face a power-conference opponent this week.
These in-state rivals have started to play more regularly in recent years. They last met on neutral turf in Foxboro in 2016, with B.C. winning 26-7. The Minutemen haven’t had much success against Boston College historically, but they’ll be excited to take their shot against a power conference team from the same state.
I’m a big believer in the Eagles heading into the season, so it’s easy for me to swallow the points and lean toward Boston College to win by a comfortable margin. UMass proved time and time again last season that they aren’t a pushover, as they played close games against a couple of SEC teams. The Minutemen figure to be even better this year. But B.C. isn’t going to look past them, and if the Eagles put forth a strong effort, I’m confident they’ll win by at least three touchdowns.
I expect Addazio’s game plan to be simple but effective. The Eagles will no doubt run the ball up the gut with A.J. Dillon, and I’m not sure the Minutemen will be able to stop it. Dillon is a beast of a running back who racked up over 1,500 yards last year, including four games in which he gained over 190 yards. He could be a dark horse to win the Heisman this season, especially with a veteran offensive line blocking for him.
Meanwhile, the biggest weakness of the UMass defense appears to the defensive line. The Minutemen have three new starts up front, so they’re a little inexperienced. They’re also lacking in depth on the defensive front, which means they’re likely to get worn down by a physical B.C. offensive line over the course of the game, and that’s on top of having to tackle a power runner like Dillon.
It’s hard for me to envision the UMass defense having much success at stopping Dillon. At some point, the Minutemen will have to stack the box and bring linebackers and safeties close to the line of scrimmage. That’s when the Eagles will be able to hit them with play-action and deep shots in the passing game. Quarterback Anthony Brown didn’t exactly shine last season, so it’s not a lock that the Eagles will have a proficient passing attack this early in the season. But Boston College does have good wide receivers who should be able to win one-on-one matchups if UMass is selling out to stop the run.
On the other side of the ball, UMass could have a functional offense. Well, at least they put up 63 points against Duquesne last week. Andrew Ford is a solid option at quarterback who will be supported by an experienced offensive line and a few capable skill players. But there’s a big difference between scoring points against Duquesne and doing it against Boston College.
The Eagles have a powerful front-7 that may be able to able to overwhelm the Minutemen at the line of scrimmage. If UMass can’t get its running game going, I’m not sure Ford will be capable of carrying the offense by himself. If nothing else, many of the big plays that UMass used to score points against Duquesne last week probably won’t be there against the B.C. defense. The Eagles may be a little vulnerable in the secondary, but they have enough playmakers at the line of scrimmage to help limit the damage Ford and the Minutemen are able to do down the field.
I fully expect UMass to come out swinging in this game. They may even be able to take an early lead. However, I have a hard time believing they can keep Dillon contained for four quarters. Eventually, the floodgates will open and the Eagles will start moving the ball at will, enabling them to pull away and cover the 18.5-point spread.