A pair of old rivals will get together on a Friday night as the Boston College Eagles play host to the Miami Hurricanes. Kickoff is set for 7:00 EST on Friday, October 26, at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. The game can be seen nationally on ESPN.
Miami opened the week as a 1-point favorite on the road. However, heavy betting on the side of the Hurricanes has made them 3.5-point favorites. The over/under is set at 54 points. Click here to check out a full list of this week’s college football betting odds.
The Hurricanes had last week off to recover from their disappointing 16-13 loss to Virginia a couple of weeks ago. That loss snapped a five-game winning streak and knocked Miami out of the top-25. Late in that game, senior Malik Rosier replaced freshman N’Kosi Perry at quarterback, a move that coach Mark Richt has made permanent, meaning Rosier will start Friday night against the Eagles.
On the bright side, at 5-2 overall and 2-1 in ACC play, Miami is very much alive in the ACC Coastal division race, as they look to reach the ACC title game for the second straight season. However, they likely have to win the rest of their games and get a little help to make that happen. The Hurricanes also play three of their last five away from home, so it won’t be easy by any stretch, making it vital that they get back on track this week.
Boston College also had last week off after winning comfortably against Louisville the previous week. The Eagles have had a tough time maintaining consistency since their loss to Purdue in late September, a loss that knocked them out of the top-25 after a brief cameo appearance in the polls.
Nevertheless, B.C. is still alive in the ACC Coastal division race. Much like Miami, the Eagles have to win out and get a little help. They also have road games against Virginia Tech and Florida State, not to mention a home date against Clemson still left on their schedule. However, a win on Friday will secure a bowl game for the third straight season and put the Eagles in a position to eclipse the 7-win plateau they’ve had under Steve Addazio.
Those of a certain age will remember the days when Miami and Boston College met on a yearly basis as members of the Big East. They have met just four times in more than a decade since both made the move to the ACC. They have split those four meetings, with the Hurricanes winning in Chestnut Hill the last time these two teams played in 2012.
If this game were a PK, I’d probably lean toward Boston College to win, so giving me 3.5 points makes it even easier to pick the Eagles at home. After barely escaping against Florida State and looking pitiful against Virginia, it’s fair to question how good Miami actually is this season. Playing in Chestnut Hill on what promises to be a chilly night, I’ll take the home team over the club from South Beach.
Undoubtedly, the biggest factor in this game is the health of B.C. running back AJ Dillon. The sophomore back has missed the last two games, including a 5-point loss against N.C. State. While Ben Glines has been a fine deputy, it’s tough to replicate the power that Dillon brings to the backfield. The B.C. offense is different when he’s in the game. After being a game-time decision two weeks ago against Louisville, Dillon should be ready to play on Friday, which changes the equation of this game.
To be fair, the Miami defense has been solid against the run for most of the season. However, they haven’t seen a running back like Dillon, nor have they faced a team with the strength and physicality along the offensive line that Boston College possesses. The Hurricanes may be up for the challenge, but there’s also a good chance they get pushed around at the line of scrimmage. That will help open up play-action, where Boston College quarterback Anthony Brown has been lethal this season.
Meanwhile, there has to be some concern about the Miami offense, even with a senior in Rosier moving back into the starting spot. After all, Rosier lost his job just a month ago, so Richt is more or less pulling straws at the quarterback position right now. Despite running for a touchdown after replacing Perry in the Virginia game, Rosier didn’t provide the spark the Hurricanes needed in the passing game. He also failed to lead them to a win.
The Hurricanes also have to worry about turnovers in this game, especially with Rosier back at quarterback. Rosier tossed 14 interceptions as the full-time starter last season and also threw one against Virginia last time out. The B.C. defense is also top-10 nationally in interceptions. Even in a losing effort against a solid N.C. State team, the Eagles forced four turnovers, and that’s a trend I can see continuing against Miami.
With quarterback instability, I’m definitely down on Miami heading into a game in a tough road environment. I don’t understand why early betting has favored them so much. As long as Dillon plays, I think Boston College will be able to control the game with their rushing attack. Even if the Eagles falter, I have a hard time seeing Miami win this game comfortably. I like my chances with Boston College and the points as the home underdog.