The conferences create betting opportunities and markets, such as division-winner futures and conference MVP proposition bets. But the conference system of college football can cause mistakes in handicapping.
FBS odds can reflect all variables – real or imaginary – but they can’t reflect the ignorance of the mainstream media narrative.
“Mountain West games are hard to predict, because those teams have less even talent,” someone in a nightclub will say after hearing it on some SEC-centric TV show. Actually, the opposite is true – the Mountain West is full of fine athletes, but there aren’t a ton of freshmen or other newcomers like Tua Tagovailoa or Kelly Bryant who can light up the league as newcomers. NFL blue-chippers can make games even more unpredictable.
Boise State has been excellent this season, except for a single loss to a P5 contender. Same story for San Diego State. That makes this one hard to predict, for sure…but not impossible.
Who: San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State Broncos
When: Saturday, October 6th, 3:30 PM EST
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
Lines: SDSU (+14) at BSU (-14) / O/U Total: (51)
After dropping their season opener at Stanford, Rocky Long’s San Diego State has racked up 3 consecutive wins, including a 28-21 home triumph over the Pac-12’s Arizona State.
Senior QB Christian Chapman sprained the MCL in his left knee during the Aztecs’ Week 2 win against Sacramento State; he’ll be sidelined at least a few more weeks. The San Diego Union Tribune is bemoaning the demolished state of the backfield:
Backup fullback Chad Woolsey, backup tailback Chase Jasmin and backup quarterback Ryan Agnew will be in the backfield for Saturday afternoon’s Mountain West opener at No. 24 Boise State.
“We’re getting younger by the day, everytime we lose a starter or a veteran player we’re playing younger guys,” SDSU head coach Rocky Long said. “There isn’t anything you can do about it. You hope they play well. … I think they’re going to be OK. You never know until you get out there and play.”
Woolsey played the final few drives two weeks ago against Eastern Michigan after Lessard was injured. With last week’s bye, Lessard was expected to be ready for the Broncos. Long said during Tuesday’s press conference that Lessard would not play. Long did not say how long the junior from Sacramento is expected to be out.
Bell-cow running back Juwan Washington fractured his collarbone last week against Eastern Michigan:
Washington was injured in the second quarter of SDSU’s 23-20 overtime win at SDCCU Stadium. He carried for 3- and 2-yard gains before being replaced by sophomore Chase Jasmin during an eight-play drive that ended with an interception.
Washington had 12 carries for 61 yards in the first half against the Eagles, but stood on the SDSU sidelines wearing a sling the final two quarters. He came into the game as the nation’s fourth-leading rusher with 150.7 yards a game. Washington has rushed 99 times for 513 yards (5.2 ypc) and five touchdowns in four games this season.
The injury ends any further discussion of Washington joining D.J. Pumphrey and Rashaad Penny as SDSU’s third straight 2,000-yard running back, for this season anyway. Washington is a junior who has said he definitely will be returning for his senior year.
Washington will be replaced by sophomore Chase Jasmin, who carried 16 times for 94 yards against Eastern Michigan following Washington’s injury.
It’s hard enough replacing 2,698 all-purpose yards on offense that Rashaad Penny gave this offense before jumping to the NFL, but doing so with your 2nd string QB and RB make makes it even harder.
Boise State sports one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Senior QB Brett Rypien ranks 4th in the FBS in passing yards at 362 yards per game, 10th in QB Rating and 10th in completion percentage, and through 4 games is yet to throw an interception. The Broncos are scoring 43.3 points per game.
But in a week three trip to Oklahoma State, the Broncos gave up 7 sacks, and scored only 21 points despite Rypien’s 380 passing yards. The Broncos also rushed 31 times for only 34 yards (this counts sack yards, yes). The proud Broncos were demolished in the trenches, and can’t let it happen again.
Protecting Rypien has to be a priority. When given time he’s one of the best passers in the country. But it’s the Boise Blue defense – a deadly foe on its home turf – that should make the difference in this contest.
I’m liking Boise State to prevail by 17-20 points thanks to a defense that, while run-over by Oklahoma State under adverse circumstances, will be more-experienced and a little more athletic than the opposing unit this weekend. San Diego State is a fine program but cannot deal with the type of decimating injuries it has suffered in ’18.
Take the Boise Blue to cover.