The first 3 days of the 2019 college football schedule – Saturday 8/24, Thursday 8/29, and Friday 8/30 – are filled with interesting and fun games. Or at least potentially interesting and fun – we haven’t seen them play out yet. But the Saturday openers almost can’t be beat, with Florida and Miami rekindling an ought-to-have-been rivalry prior to a Pac-12 vs Mountain West “bailout betting” game between Hawaii and Arizona on the island of Halawa.
Speaking of cool cross-conference games, any Thursday-Friday set that includes BYU and Utah, the Clemson Tigers, and Chip Kelly’s UCLA against a mean defense from Cincinnati is OK in my book.
But what is the most-intriguing match of the Saturday 8/31 – the 1st genuine “CFB Saturday” of the year? Oregon at Auburn? Northwestern at Stanford? How about the match-up of USC and Fresno State, a tough season-opening test for underclassman J.T. Daniels of the Trojans.
You can make a case for Boise State at Florida State. Each legendary program is coming off a disappointing year – FSU looked like the team-in-transition that it was in 2018 as Willie Taggart’s 1st season ended 5-7. The Seminoles were blown-out in 4 of the last 5 contests, but don’t take to the Broncos about season-ending letdowns…the Boise Blue lost the MWC Championship Game to rival Fresno State late last autumn. Regardless, the prime-time contest is still the most name-brand recognizable Group-of-5 football team in America (sorry, UCF) taking on 1 of the biggest name-brands in all of sport, along with nearly 100,000 screaming, Tomahawk-chopping students.
Las Vegas odds-makers like the hosts – and the venue – to produce a victory for FSU. But not by much.
Who: Boise State Broncos at Florida State Seminoles
When: Saturday, August 31st, 7 PM EST
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Lines: BSU (+5) at FSU (-5) / O/U Total: (53.5)
Let’s take a closer look at what these iconic teams have been up to in preseason.
Boise State has lost a cast of stars on offense, including QB Brett Rypien, tailback Alex Mattison and a monster of a WR in Sean Modster. But the OL also returns all 5 starters, and the WR and TE corps are stacked.
Bill Connelly of SBNation writes that the Broncos’ level of year-to-year consistency is “ridiculous,” and profiles what has been a 3-way battle for the new starting QB job:
There will be passing yards. And who might throw for them is a bit of a mystery. There seem to be three primary candidates:
Sophomore Chase Cord, last year’s backup, completed six of nine passes for 67 yards and rushed eight times for 109 but tore his ACL midyear and missed some valuable spring practice time. Senior Jaylon Henderson, a former three-star UTSA signee, spent a lot of time with the No. 1 offense this spring and acquitted himself reasonably well. Freshman Hank Bachmeier was, per the 247Sports Composite, a four-star, the most-touted BSU QB since Rypien. He too spent time with the No. 1s this spring. Cord should be at full strength by fall camp, and my guess is that either he or Bachmeier win the job. But whoever’s taking snaps will have a ridiculous receiving corps, even without Modster and Richardson.
Meanwhile, the BSU defense should be its usual stubborn self with a bunch of key veterans returning. What people never seem to understand is that when I tout a G5 defense on the same level as a quality P5 defense, I’m not arguing that Boise State’s conference is as strong or as deep as a P5 league. I’m arguing that Boise State is among the mid-major programs that have cultivated Power-5 levels of talent in certain areas, such as the pass rush.
Taggart’s ‘Noles are dealing with a QB conundrum as well, with 6’5” sophomore James Blackman attempting to fend-off a challenge from Wisconsin graduate transfer Alex Hornibrook.
Tamorrion Terry will be the top target for the starting signal-caller. Terry ran past defenders for a 21.3 yard reception average and 8 touchdown grabs for the Seminoles last year. Meanwhile junior RB Cam Akers looks to return to form after a sluggish 706-yard and 6-touchdown sophomore campaign. Much of Akers’ success will depend on the improvement on an offensive line that struggled in ’18.
Hamsah Nasirildeen and others are ready to shine in the front-7 for a potentially elite defense. But FSU was terrible on special teams in Taggart’s maiden season, a bad omen for a coach who has already offended the Pac-12.
Boise’s defense thrives against less-than-spectacular passing games, and if Florida State continues to have issues in kick coverage and returns, the visitors will take full advantage of that too.
The only problem is that – like the Oregon State Beavers next week – FSU’s best weapon against an explosive offense will be its home crowd. And it will absolutely be difficult for whoever takes the snaps for Boise State to play his 1st 4 quarters at the helm in front of a full house of maniacs at Doak.
I can imagine Florida State scoring 14 points in the opening 20:00 and then trying desperately to hang on as Boise State’s passing game finds its bearings. It won’t be a pretty spectacle for much of the night, and FSU could win or lose by a score like 20-17 or 24-21, similar to Boise’s other battles with ACC schools over the years.
Under (53.5) is a much-safer play than either side ATS and has a near-60% chance to pay off.